Suwon Bluewings 1-1 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon Bluewings at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Suwon Bluewings and Daegu FC meet at Suwon World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 19 May 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon Bluewings 1.50 xG and Daegu FC 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon Bluewings attack 1.225 / defence 1.216 | Daegu FC attack 1.011 / defence 1.274. League average goals — home 0.959 / away 1.093. Daegu FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.274 — this is suppressing Suwon Bluewings's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Suwon Bluewings games / 15 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 39% | Draw 30% | Daegu FC 32%. Fair-value odds: Suwon Bluewings 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Daegu FC 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Suwon Bluewings are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Suwon Bluewings if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Suwon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 19 May 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 39% | Draw 30% | Daegu FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 60% | xG Suwon Bluewings 1.50 / Daegu FC 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon Bluewings attack 1.225 / def 1.216 | Daegu FC attack 1.011 / def 1.274 | league avg home 0.959 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Suwon Bluewings (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Suwon Bluewings xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Daegu FC xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC kick off?
Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC kicked off at 11:00 on Wednesday 19 May 2021 at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC?
Suwon Bluewings 1 - 1 Daegu FC.
Where is Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC part of?
Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon Bluewings a 39% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Suwon Bluewings the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Suwon Bluewings and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Daegu FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Daegu FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Suwon Bluewings's attack at 1.23x the league average against Daegu FC's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Daegu FC's attack (1.01x) against Suwon Bluewings's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 16/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon Bluewings Win
39%
2.59
30%
3.37
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Suwon Bluewings xG
Total xG
2.84
1.34
Daegu FC xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
10%
9.95
7%
14.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.7 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Suwon Bluewings and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Suwon Bluewings and 1.34 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon Bluewings
Pre-Season
Daegu FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Daegu FC won 3-0 on 8 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Suwon Bluewings have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Daegu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Suwon Bluewings
3
Draws
5
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon Bluewings have won 2, Daegu FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Suwon Bluewings and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 17 September 2023, when Suwon Bluewings 0-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon Bluewings and Daegu FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon Bluewings home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Suwon Bluewings and Daegu FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon Bluewings and Daegu FC finished level at 1-1 at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon Bluewings 1.50 xG and Daegu FC 1.34 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon Bluewings attack 1.23 / defence 1.22 against Daegu FC attack 1.01 / defence 1.27, drawn from 16/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon Bluewings 39% | Draw 30% | Daegu FC 32%, with Suwon Bluewings to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.