Seongnam FC 0-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Seongnam FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Seongnam FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC meet at Tancheon Sports Complex in K League 1, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 26 February 2022 at 07:30 UTC.
Form
Seongnam FC (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Seongnam FC's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Tancheon Sports Complex this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tancheon Sports Complex.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Seongnam FC against 1.90 for Ulsan Hyundai FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Seongnam FC lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with Seongnam FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Seongnam FC — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Ulsan Hyundai FC — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Seongnam FC 45% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Seongnam FC 42% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Seongnam FC 1.07 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Seongnam FC attack 1.024 / defence 0.965 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.077 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.019 / away 1.063. Data: 34 Seongnam FC games / 34 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Seongnam FC 35% | Draw 29% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 36%. Fair-value odds: Seongnam FC 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Seongnam FC 40% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 70%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Seongnam FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Tancheon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Seongnam FC 35% | Draw 29% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Seongnam FC 1.07 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Seongnam FC attack 1.024 / def 0.965 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.077 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.019 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Seongnam FC xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Seongnam FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Seongnam FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Seongnam FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Seongnam FC 0 - 2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Seongnam FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What competition is Seongnam FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Seongnam FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Seongnam FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Seongnam FC a 35% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Seongnam FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Seongnam FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Seongnam FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Record (3 meetings): Seongnam FC 1W | Draws 1 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 1W.
What form are Seongnam FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Seongnam FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Seongnam FC's attack at 1.02x the league average against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack (1.08x) against Seongnam FC's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
The sample (34/34 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
35%
2.89
29%
3.41
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Seongnam FC xG
Total xG
2.18
1.10
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
11%
8.73
12%
8.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 12.5 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Seongnam FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Seongnam FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Seongnam FC and 1.10 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Seongnam FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Seongnam FC's recent record stands at 11W 11D 16L from 38 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC, meanwhile, have gone 21W 11D 6L across 38 games — 1.95 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ulsan Hyundai FC by 0.79 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Seongnam FC heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Seongnam FC have managed 8W 5D 6L from 19 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record stands at 8W 6D 5L across 19 trips, a 1.58 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Seongnam FC are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.68 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Seongnam FC
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Seongnam FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Seongnam FC have gone 11W 11D 16L in their last 38 games (1.16 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 21W 11D 6L in their last 38 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Seongnam FC at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Seongnam FC at home: 1.53 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Seongnam FC or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Seongnam FC have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Seongnam FC won 3-0 on 4 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Seongnam FC have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ulsan Hyundai FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Seongnam FC
2
Draws
2
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Seongnam FC have won 2, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Seongnam FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 4 September 2022, when Seongnam FC 3-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Seongnam FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Seongnam FC 42%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Seongnam FC) and 63% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Seongnam FC keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 37%; Seongnam FC have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Seongnam FC home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Seongnam FC play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Seongnam FC's recent matches and 58% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Seongnam FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Seongnam FC's recent games and 63% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Seongnam FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Seongnam FC have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ulsan Hyundai FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Seongnam FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Seongnam FC 0-2 at Tancheon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 2, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Seongnam FC 1.07 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.10 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Seongnam FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Ulsan Hyundai FC outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Seongnam FC attack 1.02 / defence 0.96 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.08 / defence 1.03, drawn from 34/34 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Seongnam FC 35% | Draw 29% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 36%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Seongnam FC 42%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Seongnam FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.16. Form held, and they took the win. Seongnam FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.