Gimcheon Sangmu FC 4-0 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jeju United FC at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeju United FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gimcheon Sangmu FC host Jeju United FC at Gimcheon Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 5 July 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Gimcheon Sangmu FC — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 3L across 9 games at Gimcheon Stadium this term (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Gimcheon Sangmu FC are significantly better at Gimcheon Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Jeju United FC have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jeju United FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jeju United FC away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Jeju United FC — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Gimcheon Sangmu FC in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games).
Jeju United FC in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 58% versus Jeju United FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 37% | Jeju United FC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.04 xG and Jeju United FC 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.791 / defence 1.121 | Jeju United FC attack 1.174 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.102. Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 19 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 52 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 26% | Draw 28% | Jeju United FC 46%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | Jeju United FC 2.17. Jeju United FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jeju United FC are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeju United FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 56% | Jeju United FC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 Jul 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 26% | Draw 28% | Jeju United FC 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.04 / Jeju United FC 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.791 / def 1.121 | Jeju United FC attack 1.174 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Jeju United FC xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 11:00 on Tuesday 5 July 2022 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 4 - 0 Jeju United FC.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeju United FC part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 26% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Jeju United FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Jeju United FC in?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Jeju United FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Jeju United FC's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, Jeju United FC's attack versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
26%
3.83
28%
3.55
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
2.49
1.45
Jeju United FC xG
3.83
26%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
23%
4.26
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
6%
16.32
16%
6.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 12.1 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1.45 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent record stands at 4W 7D 8L from 19 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Gimcheon Sangmu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jeju United FC, meanwhile, have gone 8W 6D 5L across 19 games — 1.58 PPG, with W-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Jeju United FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jeju United FC by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gimcheon Sangmu FC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have managed 3W 3D 3L from 9 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jeju United FC's away record stands at 5W 1D 3L across 9 trips, a 1.78 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeju United FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.26 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Jeju United FC in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Blended
Jeju United FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 4W 7D 8L in their last 19 games (1.00 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 8W 6D 5L in their last 19 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home or Jeju United FC away?
Jeju United FC's away record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home: 1.33 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Gimcheon Sangmu FC or Jeju United FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Jeju United FC in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Jeju United FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Jul 2022, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's record when hosting Jeju United FC specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
3
Draws
2
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 5, Jeju United FC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-1 Jeju United FC.
Who has won more matches between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Jeju United FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Jeju United FC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 56%, Jeju United FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 22% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC) and 56% (Jeju United FC).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gimcheon Sangmu FC play Jeju United FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's games and 56% of Jeju United FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent games and 56% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Jeju United FC tend to score early?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Jeju United FC in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Gimcheon Sangmu FC run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Jeju United FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat Jeju United FC 4-0 at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.04 xG and Jeju United FC 1.45 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jeju United FC landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.79 / defence 1.12 against Jeju United FC attack 1.17 / defence 1.05, drawn from 19/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 26% | Draw 28% | Jeju United FC 46%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Gimcheon Sangmu FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 37%, Jeju United FC 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeju United FC arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.