Pohang Steelers 0-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pohang Steelers at 40%, yet in-form Ulsan Hyundai FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Championship Round - 2 as Pohang Steelers welcome Ulsan Hyundai FC to Steelyard. Kick-off is set for Sunday 27 October 2024 at 05:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Pohang Steelers have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pohang Steelers have posted 4W 3D 3L at Steelyard — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Pohang Steelers are significantly better at Steelyard than their overall form suggests.
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Ulsan Hyundai FC's 2.00 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Pohang Steelers's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Pohang Steelers, 3 for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2024, ended 4–5 with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Pohang Steelers trading profile (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Ulsan Hyundai FC trading profile (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pohang Steelers 65% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pohang Steelers 44% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pohang Steelers 1.10 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pohang Steelers attack 0.926 / defence 0.896 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.819 / defence 0.813. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.234. Data: 66 Pohang Steelers games / 66 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 40% | Draw 31% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 30%. Fair-value odds: Pohang Steelers 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pohang Steelers as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ulsan Hyundai FC (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pohang Steelers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.00 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Pohang Steelers 80% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Championship Round - 2 | Venue: Steelyard • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 40% | Draw 31% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Pohang Steelers 1.10 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Pohang Steelers attack 0.926 / def 0.896 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.819 / def 0.813 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Pohang Steelers (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Pohang Steelers xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 05:00 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Steelyard.
What was the final score in Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Pohang Steelers 0 - 2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Steelyard.
What competition is Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Championship Round - 2 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Pohang Steelers a 40% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Pohang Steelers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Record (5 meetings): Pohang Steelers 1W | Draws 1 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 3W.
What form are Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Pohang Steelers (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pohang Steelers's attack at 0.93x the league average against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus Pohang Steelers's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pohang Steelers Win
40%
2.52
31%
3.27
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Pohang Steelers xG
Total xG
2.00
0.91
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
16%
6.23
10%
10.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 12.2 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Pohang Steelers and 0.91 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pohang Steelers come into this having played 72 games, going 30W 26D 16L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-D.
On the other side, Ulsan Hyundai FC sit at 1.92 PPG from 72 outings (41W 15D 16L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pohang Steelers on 1.61 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC on 1.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Pohang Steelers's home form reads 18W 13D 5L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Ulsan Hyundai FC have taken 1.56 points per game from 36 outings (16W 8D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Pohang Steelers are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.61 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pohang Steelers have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Pohang Steelers have gone 30W 26D 16L in their last 72 games (1.61 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 41W 15D 16L in their last 72 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pohang Steelers at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Pohang Steelers's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pohang Steelers at home: 1.86 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Pohang Steelers or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pohang Steelers have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Pohang Steelers's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Pohang Steelers
3
Draws
4
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Pohang Steelers have won 3, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 0-1 Pohang Steelers.
Who has won more matches between Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pohang Steelers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Ulsan Hyundai FC see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pohang Steelers 61%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Pohang Steelers) and 44% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Pohang Steelers keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 33%; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pohang Steelers home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pohang Steelers play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Pohang Steelers's recent matches and 47% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Pohang Steelers's recent games and 44% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Pohang Steelers have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ulsan Hyundai FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Pohang Steelers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Pohang Steelers 0-2 at Steelyard, Championship Round - 2, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 1.10 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.91 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Pohang Steelers fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Ulsan Hyundai FC outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 0.93 / defence 0.90 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.82 / defence 0.81, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 40% | Draw 31% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 30%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Ulsan Hyundai FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 44%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pohang Steelers 1.61 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ulsan Hyundai FC win broke the near-deadlock. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.