Pohang Steelers 1-1 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pohang Steelers at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Jeju United FC travel to Steelyard Stadium to take on Pohang Steelers in K League 1 (matchday 12). The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 May 2024 at 09:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Pohang Steelers have gone 3W 5D 2L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Pohang Steelers have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Pohang Steelers are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Jeju United FC stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Jeju United FC away from home: 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Pohang Steelers are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Pohang Steelers's games and 60% of Jeju United FC's (from Pohang Steelers's last 10 home games and Jeju United FC's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Pohang Steelers, 0 for Jeju United FC and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Mar 2024, ended Pohang Steelers 2–0 Jeju United FC — a Pohang Steelers win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Pohang Steelers trading profile (last 76 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 64%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Jeju United FC trading profile (last 76 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pohang Steelers 59% versus Jeju United FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pohang Steelers 37% | Jeju United FC 54%). Note also that Jeju United FC surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Pohang Steelers recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 64% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pohang Steelers 1.16 xG and Jeju United FC 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pohang Steelers attack 0.755 / defence 0.606 | Jeju United FC attack 0.820 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.278. Pohang Steelers's attack rating of 0.755 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.16. Pohang Steelers have a tight defence (rating 0.606), which is pulling Jeju United FC's projected output down. Data: built from Pohang Steelers's last 44 games and Jeju United FC's last 44.
Result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 48% | Draw 33% | Jeju United FC 20%. Fair-value odds: Pohang Steelers 2.10 | Draw 3.05 | Jeju United FC 5.12. Pohang Steelers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS Yes probability 33% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Jeju United FC's lower xG of 0.64 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pohang Steelers at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pohang Steelers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.79 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Pohang Steelers 60% (last 10 home games) | Jeju United FC 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 12 | Venue: Steelyard Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024 at 09:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 48% | Draw 33% | Jeju United FC 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% (Under 73%) | BTTS Yes 33% (No 67%) | xG Pohang Steelers 1.16 / Jeju United FC 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Pohang Steelers attack 0.755 / def 0.606 | Jeju United FC attack 0.820 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: Pohang Steelers (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Pohang Steelers xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Jeju United FC xG
33%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC FAQs
What time does Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 09:30 UK time on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Steelyard Stadium.
What was the final score in Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC?
Pohang Steelers 1 - 1 Jeju United FC.
Where is Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Steelyard Stadium.
What competition is Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC part of?
Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 12) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Pohang Steelers a 48% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 20% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Pohang Steelers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (67%).
Will Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (73%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pohang Steelers's attack rating (0.76) and Jeju United FC's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jeju United FC's attack versus Pohang Steelers's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Pohang Steelers's last 44 games and Jeju United FC's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.7%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pohang Steelers Win
48%
2.10
33%
3.05
20%
5.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Pohang Steelers xG
Total xG
1.79
0.64
Jeju United FC xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
5.12
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.03
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
25%
3.96
6%
16.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.7 | 10.6 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.3 | 12.2 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 7.1 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Pohang Steelers and 0.64 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pohang Steelers come into this having played 76 games, going 32W 28D 16L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-D.
On the other side, Jeju United FC sit at 1.22 PPG from 76 outings (24W 21D 31L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-D across their last five.
Pohang Steelers carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Jeju United FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Pohang Steelers's home form reads 21W 11D 5L across their last 37 home games, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Jeju United FC have taken 1.24 points per game from their last 37 away games (13W 7D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pohang Steelers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pohang Steelers are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.25 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
Jeju United FC
Current Season
Pohang Steelers (Home) vs Jeju United FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
Jeju United FC
Current Season
❓ Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC Form FAQs
What form are Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Pohang Steelers have gone 32W 28D 16L in their last 76 games (1.63 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 24W 21D 31L in their last 76 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pohang Steelers at home or Jeju United FC away?
Pohang Steelers's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pohang Steelers at home: 2.00 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Pohang Steelers or Jeju United FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pohang Steelers have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Jeju United FC in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2024. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Pohang Steelers's record when hosting Jeju United FC specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pohang Steelers
2
Draws
4
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Pohang Steelers have won 4, Jeju United FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: Pohang Steelers 1-1 Jeju United FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pohang Steelers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pohang Steelers 60%, Jeju United FC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Pohang Steelers) and 54% (Jeju United FC).
On the defensive side: Pohang Steelers keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pohang Steelers home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Pohang Steelers's games and 60% of Jeju United FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Pohang Steelers's recent games and 54% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Pohang Steelers's recent matches and 68% of Jeju United FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Steelyard Stadium, Regular Season - 12, as Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC drew 1-1 in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 1.16 xG and Jeju United FC 0.64 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 0.76 / defence 0.61 against Jeju United FC attack 0.82 / defence 1.01, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 48% | Draw 33% | Jeju United FC 20%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 37%, Jeju United FC 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pohang Steelers arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.