Pohang Steelers 2-1 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Jeju United FC at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Jeju United FC travel to Steelyard Stadium to take on Pohang Steelers. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 6 June 2023, 10:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Pohang Steelers have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Steelyard Stadium, Pohang Steelers have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jeju United FC stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Jeju United FC away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pohang Steelers 1.50 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Pohang Steelers trading profile (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Jeju United FC trading profile (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pohang Steelers 54% versus Jeju United FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pohang Steelers 40% | Jeju United FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pohang Steelers 0.97 xG and Jeju United FC 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pohang Steelers attack 1.053 / defence 0.854 | Jeju United FC attack 1.259 / defence 0.727. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.326. Jeju United FC's defence strength of 0.727 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Jeju United FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.259 — the away xG of 1.42 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 Pohang Steelers games / 49 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 26% | Draw 27% | Jeju United FC 47%. Fair-value odds: Pohang Steelers 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Jeju United FC 2.13. Jeju United FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jeju United FC at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeju United FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Pohang Steelers 70% | Jeju United FC 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Steelyard Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 6 Jun 2023, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 26% | Draw 27% | Jeju United FC 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Pohang Steelers 0.97 / Jeju United FC 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Pohang Steelers attack 1.053 / def 0.854 | Jeju United FC attack 1.259 / def 0.727 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Pohang Steelers xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Jeju United FC xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 10:00 on Tuesday 6 June 2023 at Steelyard Stadium.
What was the final score in Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC?
Pohang Steelers 2 - 1 Jeju United FC.
Where is Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Steelyard Stadium.
What competition is Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC part of?
Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Pohang Steelers a 26% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC in?
Pohang Steelers (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Jeju United FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pohang Steelers's attack rating (1.05) and Jeju United FC's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jeju United FC's attack versus Pohang Steelers's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
26%
3.90
27%
3.70
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Pohang Steelers xG
Total xG
2.40
1.42
Jeju United FC xG
3.90
26%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
6%
16.19
18%
5.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 12.9 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Pohang Steelers and 1.42 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pohang Steelers come into this having played 76 games, going 28W 22D 26L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-W.
On the other side, Jeju United FC sit at 1.37 PPG from 76 outings (26W 26D 24L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pohang Steelers on 1.39 PPG, Jeju United FC on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Pohang Steelers's home form reads 15W 11D 12L across 38 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Jeju United FC have taken 1.42 points per game from 38 outings (14W 12D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Pohang Steelers are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.34 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jeju United FC in 61%.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
Jeju United FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Pohang Steelers have gone 28W 22D 26L in their last 76 games (1.39 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 26W 26D 24L in their last 76 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pohang Steelers at home or Jeju United FC away?
Pohang Steelers's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pohang Steelers at home: 1.47 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jeju United FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Pohang Steelers's record when hosting Jeju United FC specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Pohang Steelers
1
Draws
4
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Pohang Steelers have won 5, Jeju United FC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Jeju United FC 2-1 Pohang Steelers.
Who has won more matches between Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC?
Pohang Steelers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pohang Steelers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Jeju United FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pohang Steelers 55%, Jeju United FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Pohang Steelers) and 55% (Jeju United FC).
On the defensive side: Pohang Steelers keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Jeju United FC in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pohang Steelers home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pohang Steelers play Jeju United FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Pohang Steelers's games and 58% of Jeju United FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Pohang Steelers's recent games and 55% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC tend to score early?
Pohang Steelers have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Jeju United FC in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pohang Steelers defy the odds to beat Jeju United FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pohang Steelers beat Jeju United FC 2-1 at Steelyard Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 0.97 xG and Jeju United FC 1.42 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Pohang Steelers beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 1.05 / defence 0.85 against Jeju United FC attack 1.26 / defence 0.73, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 26% | Draw 27% | Jeju United FC 47%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Pohang Steelers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 40%, Jeju United FC 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pohang Steelers 1.39 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pohang Steelers win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.