Jeonbuk Motors 1-1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeonbuk Motors at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeonbuk Motors vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jeonju World Cup Stadium plays host to Jeonbuk Motors versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 19 March 2022 at 10:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jeonbuk Motors have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Jeonbuk Motors at Jeonju World Cup Stadium this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 0.92 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.885 / defence 0.866 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.577 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.073 / away 0.982. Data: 38 Jeonbuk Motors games / 5 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 44% | Draw 37% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 19%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 2.27 | Draw 2.70 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 5.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 17% | BTTS probability 23% | Total xG 1.41. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 83% probability — total xG of 1.41 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 77% — Gimcheon Sangmu FC's lower xG of 0.49 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 23%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 17% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 44% | Draw 37% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 17% | BTTS 23% | xG Jeonbuk Motors 0.92 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.49 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.885 / def 0.866 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.577 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.073 / away 0.982 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
0.49
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
23%
BTTS
41%
Over 1.5
17%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 10:00 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Jeonbuk Motors 1 - 1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 44% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 19% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 23% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 17%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in?
Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Jeonbuk Motors home split: 2.50 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | CS 5.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Jeonbuk Motors's attack rating (0.89) and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack (0.58x) against Jeonbuk Motors's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.49.
These ratings are built from 38/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 25.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (21.0%), 1-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 59% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
44%
2.25
37%
2.73
19%
5.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
24.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
22.5%
Home win
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
1.41
0.49
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
2.25
44%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
5.30
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
41%
Over 1.5
2.44
59%
Under 1.5
1.69
17%
Over 2.5
5.88
83%
Under 2.5
1.20
5%
Over 3.5
20.00
95%
Under 3.5
1.05
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
23%
BTTS Yes
4.29
77%
BTTS No
1.30
Clean Sheet
61%
1.63
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
27%
3.67
8%
13.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 24.4 | 12.0 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 22.5 | 11.0 | 2.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 5.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 25.8%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 0.49 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 1.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Pre-Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 4-0 on 14 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gimcheon Sangmu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jeonbuk Motors
3
Draws
4
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeonbuk Motors have won 3, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Jeonbuk Motors 1-0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeonbuk Motors and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Jeonbuk Motors and Gimcheon Sangmu FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors and Gimcheon Sangmu FC finished level at 1-1 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 0.92 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.49 xG, a combined 1.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.89 / defence 0.87 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.58 / defence 0.97, drawn from 38/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 44% | Draw 37% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 19%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 17%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 41% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 23% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.