Jeonbuk Motors 1-1 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeonbuk Motors at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Jeonbuk Motors face Jeju United FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Jeju United FC travel to Jeonju World Cup Stadium to take on Jeonbuk Motors in K League 1 (matchday 8). The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 April 2025 at 09:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Jeonbuk Motors have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Jeonbuk Motors are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Jeju United FC — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Jeju United FC have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jeonbuk Motors 1.50 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Jeonbuk Motors have won 2, Jeju United FC 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Oct 2024, ended Jeonbuk Motors 0–1 Jeju United FC — a Jeju United FC win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Jeonbuk Motors in-play tendencies (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Jeju United FC in-play tendencies (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeonbuk Motors 49% versus Jeju United FC 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeonbuk Motors 45% | Jeju United FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.24 xG and Jeju United FC 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.062 / defence 1.151 | Jeju United FC attack 0.687 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.184 / away 1.041. Jeju United FC's attack rating of 0.687 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.82. Data: built from Jeonbuk Motors's last 40 games and Jeju United FC's last 40.
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 46% | Draw 29% | Jeju United FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 2.17 | Draw 3.41 | Jeju United FC 4.07. Jeonbuk Motors hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jeonbuk Motors are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 66% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Jeonbuk Motors 50% (last 10 home games) | Jeju United FC 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 8 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 13 April 2025 at 09:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 46% | Draw 29% | Jeju United FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Jeonbuk Motors 1.24 / Jeju United FC 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.062 / def 1.151 | Jeju United FC attack 0.687 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.184 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Jeju United FC xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC FAQs
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 09:30 UK time on Sunday 13 April 2025 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC?
Jeonbuk Motors 1 - 1 Jeju United FC.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 8) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 46% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Jeonbuk Motors's attack rating (1.06) and Jeju United FC's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jeju United FC's attack versus Jeonbuk Motors's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Jeonbuk Motors's last 40 games and Jeju United FC's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
46%
2.17
29%
3.41
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
2.07
0.82
Jeju United FC xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
20%
4.95
7%
14.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 10.4 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.0 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 0.82 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jeonbuk Motors's recent record stands at 28W 20D 28L from 76 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Jeju United FC, meanwhile, have gone 25W 15D 36L across 76 games — 1.18 PPG, with W-W-D-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jeonbuk Motors on 1.37 PPG, Jeju United FC on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Jeonbuk Motors have managed 17W 11D 10L from their last 38 home games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jeju United FC's away record stands at 9W 7D 22L across their last 38 away games, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.07 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
Jeju United FC
Current Season
Jeonbuk Motors (Home) vs Jeju United FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
Jeju United FC
Current Season
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC Form FAQs
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Jeonbuk Motors have gone 28W 20D 28L in their last 76 games (1.37 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 25W 15D 36L in their last 76 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeonbuk Motors at home or Jeju United FC away?
Jeonbuk Motors's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeonbuk Motors at home: 1.63 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from April 2024. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Jeonbuk Motors's record when hosting Jeju United FC specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Jeonbuk Motors
3
Draws
3
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Jeonbuk Motors have won 4, Jeju United FC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: Jeonbuk Motors 3-2 Jeju United FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jeonbuk Motors are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeonbuk Motors 60%, Jeju United FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Jeonbuk Motors) and 47% (Jeju United FC).
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Jeju United FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Jeonbuk Motors's games and 53% of Jeju United FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent games and 47% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent matches and 68% of Jeju United FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 8, as Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC drew 1-1 in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.24 xG and Jeju United FC 0.82 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.06 / defence 1.15 against Jeju United FC attack 0.69 / defence 0.99, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 46% | Draw 29% | Jeju United FC 25%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 45%, Jeju United FC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeonbuk Motors 1.37 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.