Jeju United FC 1-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC meet at Jeju World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 August 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jeju United FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jeju United FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Jeju United FC have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ulsan Hyundai FC have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ulsan Hyundai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Ulsan Hyundai FC arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Jeju United FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
Jeju United FC half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Ulsan Hyundai FC half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeju United FC 55% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 52% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 1.37 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 1.142 / defence 1.011 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.067 / defence 0.828. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.280. Data: 60 Jeju United FC games / 60 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 36% | Draw 26% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 37%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ulsan Hyundai FC at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jeju United FC 70% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 36% | Draw 26% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Jeju United FC 1.37 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 1.142 / def 1.011 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.067 / def 0.828 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Jeju United FC 1 - 1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 36% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Jeju United FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Jeju United FC's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. Flip it around — Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack (1.07x) against Jeju United FC's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
36%
2.74
26%
3.79
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
2.75
1.38
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
9%
10.90
9%
10.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.1 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 1.38 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 65 outings, Jeju United FC have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 23W 23D 19L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Jeju United FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's form line: 38W 18D 9L from 65 games, 2.03 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-W. The sample for Ulsan Hyundai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jeju United FC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Jeju United FC have posted 1.47 PPG from 32 outings (12W 11D 9L).
On the road, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 16W 9D 7L from 32 away games — 1.78 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Jeju United FC are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.65 scored and 0.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 60%.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Blended
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 23W 23D 19L in their last 65 games (1.42 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 38W 18D 9L in their last 65 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeju United FC at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeju United FC at home: 1.47 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Jeju United FC or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeju United FC have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Ulsan Hyundai FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jeju United FC have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ulsan Hyundai FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jeju United FC
0
Draws
8
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 2, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-1 Jeju United FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeju United FC 62%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Jeju United FC) and 53% (Ulsan Hyundai FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 16% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jeju United FC keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeju United FC play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Jeju United FC's games and 59% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Jeju United FC's matches and 53% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's.
Do Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Jeju United FC have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC finished level at 1-1 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.37 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.38 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 1.14 / defence 1.01 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.07 / defence 0.83, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 36% | Draw 26% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 37%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 52%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeju United FC's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.42. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.