Jeju United FC 1-1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Jeju United FC take on Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 8 as Jeju United FC welcome Gimcheon Sangmu FC to Jeju World Cup Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 April 2026 at 07:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Jeju United FC have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Jeju United FC's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Jeju World Cup Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Jeju United FC) versus 1.50 (Gimcheon Sangmu FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have the better historical record — 5 wins from 8 previous contests against 2 for Jeju United FC.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jul 2025, ended 1–3 with Gimcheon Sangmu FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Jeju United FC in-play and half-time data (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Gimcheon Sangmu FC in-play and half-time data (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeju United FC 47% versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 45% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 0.92 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 0.808 / defence 0.979 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.825 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.100 / away 1.114. Data: 40 Jeju United FC games / 40 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 31% | Draw 39% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 30%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 3.23 | Draw 2.56 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3.33. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.82 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Jeju United FC 50% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 31% | Draw 39% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 39% | xG Jeju United FC 0.92 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 0.808 / def 0.979 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.825 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.100 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
39%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Jeju United FC 1 - 1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 31% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 30% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Record (8 meetings): Jeju United FC 2W | Draws 1 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 5W.
What form are Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in?
Jeju United FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Jeju United FC's attack rating (0.81) and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack versus Jeju United FC's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.23
39%
2.56
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
1.82
0.90
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
3.23
31%
Home win
2.56
39%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
13%
7.95
12%
8.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.2 | 14.6 | 6.6 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.0%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 0.90 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 76 outings, Jeju United FC have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 26W 12D 38L record — L-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's form line: 36W 16D 24L from 76 games, 1.63 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Gimcheon Sangmu FC are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jeju United FC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Jeju United FC have posted 1.51 PPG from 37 outings (17W 5D 15L).
On the road, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 15W 9D 13L from 37 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Jeju United FC are averaging 1.01 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Gimcheon Sangmu FC are on 1.50 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Current Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 26W 12D 38L in their last 76 games (1.18 PPG), while Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 36W 16D 24L in their last 76 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeju United FC at home or Gimcheon Sangmu FC away?
Jeju United FC's home record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeju United FC at home: 1.51 PPG; Gimcheon Sangmu FC away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Jeju United FC or Gimcheon Sangmu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeju United FC have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Jul 2022, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jeju United FC's record when hosting Gimcheon Sangmu FC specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jeju United FC
3
Draws
5
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 2, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-1 Jeju United FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jeju United FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeju United FC 40%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Jeju United FC) and 60% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC).
On the defensive side: Jeju United FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Jeju United FC have failed to score in 27% of games; Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeju United FC play Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Jeju United FC's recent matches and 57% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Jeju United FC's recent games and 60% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 8, as Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC drew 1-1 in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 0.92 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.90 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 0.81 / defence 0.98 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.82 / defence 1.03, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 31% | Draw 39% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 45%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeju United FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Gimcheon Sangmu FC arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.