Jeju United FC 1-2 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jeju United FC and Daegu FC meet at Jeju World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 May 2021 at 06:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 1.30 xG and Daegu FC 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 1.036 / defence 1.279 | Daegu FC attack 0.982 / defence 1.310. League average goals — home 0.955 / away 1.061. Daegu FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.310 — this is suppressing Jeju United FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Jeju United FC games / 14 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 34% | Draw 30% | Daegu FC 36%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Daegu FC 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Daegu FC as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Daegu FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 16 May 2021, 06:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 34% | Draw 30% | Daegu FC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG Jeju United FC 1.30 / Daegu FC 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 1.036 / def 1.279 | Daegu FC attack 0.982 / def 1.310 | league avg home 0.955 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Daegu FC xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC kicked off at 06:00 on Sunday 16 May 2021 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC?
Jeju United FC 1 - 2 Daegu FC.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC part of?
Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 34% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Jeju United FC and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Daegu FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jeju United FC and Daegu FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Jeju United FC's attack at 1.04x the league average against Daegu FC's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Daegu FC's attack (0.98x) against Jeju United FC's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 15/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
34%
2.94
30%
3.30
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
2.63
1.33
Daegu FC xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
9%
11.14
10%
10.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.6 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.5 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 1.33 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Pre-Season
Daegu FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 23 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Daegu FC won 0-4 on 14 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jeju United FC have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Daegu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jeju United FC
3
Draws
5
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 2, Daegu FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2025, when Jeju United FC 1-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Daegu FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Daegu FC edge out Jeju United FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC beat Jeju United FC 1-2 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.30 xG and Daegu FC 1.33 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 1.04 / defence 1.28 against Daegu FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.31, drawn from 15/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 34% | Draw 30% | Daegu FC 36%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.