Incheon United 0-0 Suwon Bluewings – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon Bluewings at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sungui Arena Park plays host to Incheon United versus Suwon Bluewings in K League 1, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Wednesday 7 April 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 1.02 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 1.179 / defence 1.150 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.932 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 0.950 / away 1.085. Data: 7 Incheon United games / 7 Suwon Bluewings games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Incheon United 29% | Draw 34% | Suwon Bluewings 37%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 3.45 | Draw 2.94 | Suwon Bluewings 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Suwon Bluewings at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Suwon Bluewings if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Sungui Arena Park • Kick-off: Wednesday 7 Apr 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Incheon United 29% | Draw 34% | Suwon Bluewings 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 46% | xG Incheon United 1.02 / Suwon Bluewings 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Incheon United attack 1.179 / def 1.150 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.932 / def 0.906 | league avg home 0.950 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Suwon Bluewings (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Incheon United xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Suwon Bluewings xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings kick off?
Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings kicked off at 11:30 on Wednesday 7 April 2021 at Sungui Arena Park.
What was the final score in Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings?
Incheon United 0 - 0 Suwon Bluewings.
Where is Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings being played?
The match is being played at Sungui Arena Park.
What competition is Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings part of?
Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our statistical model gives Incheon United a 29% chance of winning, Suwon Bluewings a 37% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Suwon Bluewings the favourite.
Will both teams score in Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Incheon United and Suwon Bluewings will score (BTTS).
Will Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Suwon Bluewings?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Incheon United and Suwon Bluewings in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Incheon United's attack at 1.18x the league average against Suwon Bluewings's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Suwon Bluewings's attack (0.93x) against Incheon United's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon Bluewings Win
29%
3.41
34%
2.95
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Incheon United xG
Total xG
2.18
1.16
Suwon Bluewings xG
3.41
29%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
9%
10.89
13%
7.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Incheon United and Suwon Bluewings expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Incheon United and 1.16 for Suwon Bluewings, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Incheon United
Pre-Season
Suwon Bluewings
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Incheon United have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Suwon Bluewings — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Incheon United
4
Draws
2
Suwon Bluewings
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Suwon Bluewings?
From 9 meetings on record, Incheon United have won 3, Suwon Bluewings have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Incheon United and Suwon Bluewings last play each other?
They last met on 30 September 2023, when Incheon United 2-0 Suwon Bluewings.
Who has won more matches between Incheon United and Suwon Bluewings?
Incheon United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Incheon United home games / Suwon Bluewings away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Incheon United's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sungui Arena Park, Regular Season - 8, as Incheon United and Suwon Bluewings drew 0-0 in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Incheon United 1.02 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.16 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Incheon United fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Suwon Bluewings landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Incheon United attack 1.18 / defence 1.15 against Suwon Bluewings attack 0.93 / defence 0.91, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Incheon United 29% | Draw 34% | Suwon Bluewings 37%, with Suwon Bluewings to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.