Gwangju FC 1-1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 19 as Gwangju FC welcome Gimcheon Sangmu FC to Gwangju Football Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 22 July 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gwangju FC stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 K League 1 matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Gwangju FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gwangju FC's home record at Gwangju Football Stadium: 2W 3D 5L from 10 K League 1 appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Gwangju FC are significantly better at Gwangju Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Gimcheon Sangmu FC are 0.60 PPG ahead (0.90 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Gwangju FC, 2 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 3 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 7 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Gwangju FC in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gwangju FC 39% versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gwangju FC 41% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gwangju FC 0.92 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gwangju FC attack 0.792 / defence 1.335 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.947 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.034 / away 1.210. Gwangju FC's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 51 Gwangju FC games / 51 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gwangju FC 20% | Draw 31% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 49%. Fair-value odds: Gwangju FC 5.00 | Draw 3.23 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.04. Gimcheon Sangmu FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Gwangju FC 30% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Gwangju Football Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Jul 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gwangju FC 20% | Draw 31% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Gwangju FC 0.92 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Gwangju FC attack 0.792 / def 1.335 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.947 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.034 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (49%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Gwangju FC xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 11:30 on Wednesday 22 July 2026 at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Gwangju FC 1 - 1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What competition is Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives Gwangju FC a 20% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 49% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Gimcheon Sangmu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Record (7 meetings): Gwangju FC 2W | Draws 3 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2W.
What form are Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in?
Gwangju FC (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gwangju FC's attack rating (0.79) and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack versus Gwangju FC's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gimcheon Sangmu FC Win
20%
4.97
31%
3.25
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Gwangju FC xG
Total xG
2.45
1.53
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
4.97
20%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
22%
4.62
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
4%
22.96
20%
5.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 13.2 | 10.1 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Gwangju FC and 1.53 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, Gwangju FC have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 16W 15D 25L record — L-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Gwangju FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's form line: 20W 17D 19L from 56 games, 1.38 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-L. The sample for Gimcheon Sangmu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gwangju FC on 1.12 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Gwangju FC have posted 1.22 PPG from 27 outings (9W 6D 12L).
On the road, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 10W 8D 9L from 27 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Gwangju FC are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Gimcheon Sangmu FC are on 1.36 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 56 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gwangju FC
Blended
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in coming into this match?
Gwangju FC have gone 16W 15D 25L in their last 56 games (1.12 PPG), while Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 20W 17D 19L in their last 56 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gwangju FC at home or Gimcheon Sangmu FC away?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gwangju FC at home: 1.22 PPG; Gimcheon Sangmu FC away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 22 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Gwangju FC's record when hosting Gimcheon Sangmu FC specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Gwangju FC
4
Draws
2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Gwangju FC have won 2, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
They last met on 22 July 2026, when Gwangju FC 1-1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gwangju FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gwangju FC 44%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Gwangju FC) and 59% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC).
On the defensive side: Gwangju FC have failed to score in 33% of games; Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gwangju FC home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gwangju FC play Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Gwangju FC's games and 67% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Gwangju FC's recent games and 59% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC tend to score early?
Gwangju FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC finished level at 1-1 at Gwangju Football Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gwangju FC 0.92 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.53 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gwangju FC attack 0.79 / defence 1.33 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.95 / defence 1.12, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gwangju FC 20% | Draw 31% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 49%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gwangju FC 41%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gwangju FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gwangju FC 1.12 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.