Gangwon FC 0-0 Seongnam FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Seongnam FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gangwon FC vs Seongnam FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 5 as Gangwon FC welcome Seongnam FC to Gangneung Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 17 March 2021 at 10:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 1.04 xG and Seongnam FC 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 0.942 / defence 1.443 | Seongnam FC attack 0.895 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 0.936 / away 0.976. Data: 4 Gangwon FC games / 4 Seongnam FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 28% | Draw 33% | Seongnam FC 39%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 3.57 | Draw 3.03 | Seongnam FC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Seongnam FC as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Seongnam FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (4 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Seongnam FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Gangneung Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 17 Mar 2021, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 28% | Draw 33% | Seongnam FC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 49% | xG Gangwon FC 1.04 / Seongnam FC 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 0.942 / def 1.443 | Seongnam FC attack 0.895 / def 1.176 | league avg home 0.936 / away 0.976 • Poisson stance: Seongnam FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Seongnam FC xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs Seongnam FC kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Seongnam FC kicked off at 10:00 on Wednesday 17 March 2021 at Gangneung Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Seongnam FC?
Gangwon FC 0 - 0 Seongnam FC.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Seongnam FC being played?
The match is being played at Gangneung Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Seongnam FC part of?
Gangwon FC vs Seongnam FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Seongnam FC?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 28% chance of winning, Seongnam FC a 39% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Seongnam FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Seongnam FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Gangwon FC and Seongnam FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs Seongnam FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Seongnam FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gangwon FC and Seongnam FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gangwon FC's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Seongnam FC's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, Seongnam FC's attack versus Gangwon FC's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (4/4 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Seongnam FC Win
28%
3.59
33%
3.00
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
2.30
1.26
Seongnam FC xG
3.59
28%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
8%
12.67
14%
7.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 12.7 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs Seongnam FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and Seongnam FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 1.26 for Seongnam FC, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs Seongnam FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Pre-Season
Seongnam FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Gangwon FC have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Sep 2022, when Gangwon FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gangwon FC's record when hosting Seongnam FC specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Gangwon FC
1
Draws
1
Seongnam FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Seongnam FC?
From 7 meetings on record, Gangwon FC have won 5, Seongnam FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and Seongnam FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 September 2022, when Seongnam FC 0-4 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Gangwon FC and Seongnam FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / Seongnam FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Gangwon FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gangneung Stadium, Regular Season - 5, as Gangwon FC and Seongnam FC drew 0-0 in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.04 xG and Seongnam FC 1.26 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Gangwon FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Seongnam FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.44 against Seongnam FC attack 0.90 / defence 1.18, drawn from 4/4 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 28% | Draw 33% | Seongnam FC 39%, with Seongnam FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.