Gangwon FC 2-1 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jeonbuk Motors make the trip to Chuncheon Songam Stadium to face Gangwon FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Wednesday 3 August 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Gangwon FC (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Gangwon FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Gangwon FC have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Jeonbuk Motors's overall K League 1 record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jeonbuk Motors, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jeonbuk Motors away from home this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 away games — 2.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Jeonbuk Motors arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Gangwon FC half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Jeonbuk Motors half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gangwon FC 54% versus Jeonbuk Motors 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gangwon FC 48% | Jeonbuk Motors 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 1.01 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 1.192 / defence 1.129 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.185 / defence 0.650. League average goals — home 1.307 / away 1.192. Jeonbuk Motors's defence strength of 0.650 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 56 Gangwon FC games / 56 Jeonbuk Motors games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 23% | Draw 27% | Jeonbuk Motors 50%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 4.35 | Draw 3.70 | Jeonbuk Motors 2.00. Jeonbuk Motors hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jeonbuk Motors at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Gangwon FC 60% | Jeonbuk Motors 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Chuncheon Songam Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 Aug 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 23% | Draw 27% | Jeonbuk Motors 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Gangwon FC 1.01 / Jeonbuk Motors 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 1.192 / def 1.129 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.185 / def 0.650 | league avg home 1.307 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Jeonbuk Motors xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 11:30 on Wednesday 3 August 2022 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Gangwon FC 2 - 1 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 23% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 50% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Gangwon FC and Jeonbuk Motors will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gangwon FC and Jeonbuk Motors in?
Gangwon FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Gangwon FC's attack at 1.19x the league average against Jeonbuk Motors's defence at 0.65x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jeonbuk Motors's attack (1.19x) against Gangwon FC's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 1-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
23%
4.30
27%
3.76
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
2.61
1.59
Jeonbuk Motors xG
4.30
23%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
20%
4.93
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
5%
21.17
18%
5.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.0 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 1.59 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 61 outings, Gangwon FC have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 18W 19D 24L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Gangwon FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jeonbuk Motors's form line: 35W 16D 10L from 61 games, 1.98 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Jeonbuk Motors is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Jeonbuk Motors are the form team by 0.78 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gangwon FC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Gangwon FC have posted 1.63 PPG from 30 outings (13W 10D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Gangwon FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 18W 8D 4L from 30 away games — 2.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gangwon FC are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Jeonbuk Motors are on 1.66 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Blended
Jeonbuk Motors
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gangwon FC and Jeonbuk Motors in coming into this match?
Gangwon FC have gone 18W 19D 24L in their last 61 games (1.20 PPG), while Jeonbuk Motors have gone 35W 16D 10L in their last 61 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gangwon FC at home or Jeonbuk Motors away?
Jeonbuk Motors's away record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gangwon FC at home: 1.63 PPG; Jeonbuk Motors away: 2.07 PPG.
Have Gangwon FC or Jeonbuk Motors been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gangwon FC have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Jeonbuk Motors in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jeonbuk Motors won 0-3 on 13 Jun 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gangwon FC have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jeonbuk Motors — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Gangwon FC
2
Draws
2
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
From 10 meetings on record, Gangwon FC have won 6, Jeonbuk Motors have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when Jeonbuk Motors 1-2 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Gangwon FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gangwon FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gangwon FC 50%, Jeonbuk Motors 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Gangwon FC) and 40% (Jeonbuk Motors).
On the defensive side: Gangwon FC keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Jeonbuk Motors in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gangwon FC play Jeonbuk Motors?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Gangwon FC's recent matches and 47% of Jeonbuk Motors's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Gangwon FC's recent games and 40% of Jeonbuk Motors's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gangwon FC and Jeonbuk Motors tend to score early?
Gangwon FC have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Jeonbuk Motors in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gangwon FC defy the odds to beat Jeonbuk Motors 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gangwon FC beat Jeonbuk Motors 2-1 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.01 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.59 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Gangwon FC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 1.19 / defence 1.13 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.19 / defence 0.65, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 23% | Draw 27% | Jeonbuk Motors 50%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Gangwon FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 48%, Jeonbuk Motors 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gangwon FC's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeonbuk Motors arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Gangwon FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.