Gangwon FC 4-1 Daejeon Citizen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Daejeon Citizen at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gangwon FC vs Daejeon Citizen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gangneung Stadium plays host to Gangwon FC versus Daejeon Citizen in K League 1, Relegation Round. Kick-off: Sunday 12 December 2021 at 05:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gangwon FC have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Gangwon FC's home record at Gangneung Stadium: 5W 3D 2L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Gangwon FC are significantly better at Gangneung Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Daejeon Citizen (all games): 1W 0D 0L across 1 K League 1 outings this term — 3.00 points per game. Last five: W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Daejeon Citizen have played only a handful of K League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Daejeon Citizen are the stronger side — 1.70 PPG clear of the hosts (3.00 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 1.17 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 1.085 / defence 1.157 | Daejeon Citizen attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.934 / away 1.264. Data: 33 Gangwon FC games / 0 Daejeon Citizen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 34% | Draw 28% | Daejeon Citizen 38%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Daejeon Citizen 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Daejeon Citizen as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Daejeon Citizen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Daejeon Citizen | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round | Venue: Gangneung Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Dec 2021, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 34% | Draw 28% | Daejeon Citizen 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Gangwon FC 1.17 / Daejeon Citizen 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 1.085 / def 1.157 | Daejeon Citizen attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.934 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Daejeon Citizen (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Daejeon Citizen xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs Daejeon Citizen kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Daejeon Citizen kicked off at 05:00 on Sunday 12 December 2021 at Gangneung Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Gangwon FC 4 - 1 Daejeon Citizen.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Daejeon Citizen being played?
The match is being played at Gangneung Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Daejeon Citizen part of?
Gangwon FC vs Daejeon Citizen is a Relegation Round fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 34% chance of winning, Daejeon Citizen a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Daejeon Citizen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Gangwon FC and Daejeon Citizen will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs Daejeon Citizen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Daejeon Citizen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gangwon FC and Daejeon Citizen in?
Gangwon FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Gangwon FC's attack rating (1.08) and Daejeon Citizen's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Daejeon Citizen's attack (0.85x) against Gangwon FC's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 33/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daejeon Citizen Win
34%
2.91
28%
3.63
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
2.41
1.24
Daejeon Citizen xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
10%
10.09
12%
8.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 11.2 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.0 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and Daejeon Citizen expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 1.24 for Daejeon Citizen, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Gangwon FC's recent record stands at 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Gangwon FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Daejeon Citizen, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 0L across 1 games — 3.00 PPG, with W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Daejeon Citizen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Daejeon Citizen by 3.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gangwon FC heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Gangwon FC are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Daejeon Citizen are on 1.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Gangwon FC have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Daejeon Citizen in 0%.
Defensively: Daejeon Citizen in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Early Season
Daejeon Citizen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gangwon FC and Daejeon Citizen in coming into this match?
Gangwon FC have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Daejeon Citizen have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Gangwon FC or Daejeon Citizen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gangwon FC have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Daejeon Citizen in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Gangwon FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gangwon FC have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Daejeon Citizen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Gangwon FC
6
Draws
1
Daejeon Citizen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Daejeon Citizen?
From 10 meetings on record, Gangwon FC have won 3, Daejeon Citizen have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and Daejeon Citizen last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Gangwon FC 2-0 Daejeon Citizen.
Who has won more matches between Gangwon FC and Daejeon Citizen?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / Daejeon Citizen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gangwon FC play Daejeon Citizen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Gangwon FC's recent matches and 0% of Daejeon Citizen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gangwon FC vs Daejeon Citizen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Gangwon FC's recent games and 0% of Daejeon Citizen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gangwon FC and Daejeon Citizen tend to score early?
Gangwon FC have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Daejeon Citizen in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Gangwon FC run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Daejeon Citizen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gangwon FC beat Daejeon Citizen 4-1 at Gangneung Stadium, Relegation Round, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.17 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.24 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Gangwon FC beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 1.08 / defence 1.16 against Daejeon Citizen attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 33/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 34% | Draw 28% | Daejeon Citizen 38%, with Daejeon Citizen to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Gangwon FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 0%, Daejeon Citizen 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Daejeon Citizen arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Gangwon FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Gangwon FC scored 4 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm. Daejeon Citizen shipped 4 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.