FC Seoul 1-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Seoul at 44%, yet in-form Ulsan Hyundai FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Seoul host Ulsan Hyundai FC at Seoul World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Championship Round - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 November 2024 at 05:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Seoul stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
FC Seoul's home record at Seoul World Cup Stadium: 7W 1D 2L from 10 K League 1 appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Seoul World Cup Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — FC Seoul are significantly better at Seoul World Cup Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Ulsan Hyundai FC — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, FC Seoul have won 0, Ulsan Hyundai FC 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Jul 2024, ended 0–1 with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
FC Seoul in-play and half-time data (74 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play and half-time data (74 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Seoul 58% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Seoul 49% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Seoul 1.24 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Seoul attack 1.034 / defence 0.869 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.831 / defence 0.821. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.233. Data: 66 FC Seoul games / 66 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Seoul 44% | Draw 29% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 27%. Fair-value odds: FC Seoul 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Seoul are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ulsan Hyundai FC (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Seoul offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: FC Seoul 40% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Championship Round - 4 | Venue: Seoul World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Nov 2024, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Seoul 44% | Draw 29% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG FC Seoul 1.24 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: FC Seoul attack 1.034 / def 0.869 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.831 / def 0.821 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: FC Seoul (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
FC Seoul xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 05:00 on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
FC Seoul 1 - 1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What competition is FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Championship Round - 4 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Seoul a 44% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC Seoul the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Record (4 meetings): FC Seoul 0W | Draws 2 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2W.
What form are FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
FC Seoul (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Seoul's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus FC Seoul's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Seoul Win
44%
2.26
29%
3.44
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
FC Seoul xG
Total xG
2.13
0.89
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
18%
5.50
8%
12.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 10.6 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.1 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for FC Seoul and 0.89 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Seoul's recent record stands at 29W 22D 23L from 74 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-D in the last five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC, meanwhile, have gone 43W 15D 16L across 74 games — 1.95 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ulsan Hyundai FC by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Seoul heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Seoul have managed 16W 9D 11L from 36 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record stands at 16W 8D 12L across 36 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
FC Seoul are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.62 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Seoul
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
FC Seoul have gone 29W 22D 23L in their last 74 games (1.47 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 43W 15D 16L in their last 74 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Seoul at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
FC Seoul's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Seoul at home: 1.58 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.56 PPG.
Have FC Seoul or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Seoul have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2026, when FC Seoul won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Seoul's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Seoul
4
Draws
3
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Seoul have won 3, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when FC Seoul 1-3 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Seoul are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Ulsan Hyundai FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Seoul 56%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC Seoul) and 44% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: FC Seoul keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 33%; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Seoul home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Seoul play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of FC Seoul's recent matches and 47% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FC Seoul's recent games and 44% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
FC Seoul have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Seoul World Cup Stadium, Championship Round - 4, as FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC drew 1-1 in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Seoul 1.24 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.89 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Seoul attack 1.03 / defence 0.87 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.83 / defence 0.82, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Seoul 44% | Draw 29% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 27%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Seoul 49%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Seoul's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.47. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.