FC Seoul 3-1 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Seoul at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Suwon City FC make the trip to Seoul World Cup Stadium to face FC Seoul in K League 1, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Sunday 8 May 2022 at 08:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Seoul have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Seoul World Cup Stadium, FC Seoul have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Seoul World Cup Stadium this season.
Suwon City FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Suwon City FC away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in FC Seoul's favour (2.10 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
FC Seoul — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Suwon City FC — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Seoul 50% versus Suwon City FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Seoul 45% | Suwon City FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Seoul 1.28 xG and Suwon City FC 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Seoul attack 1.080 / defence 1.049 | Suwon City FC attack 0.806 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.232 / away 1.184. Data: 43 FC Seoul games / 43 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Seoul 42% | Draw 30% | Suwon City FC 28%. Fair-value odds: FC Seoul 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Suwon City FC 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Seoul are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Seoul if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: FC Seoul 50% | Suwon City FC 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Seoul World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Seoul 42% | Draw 30% | Suwon City FC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG FC Seoul 1.28 / Suwon City FC 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: FC Seoul attack 1.080 / def 1.049 | Suwon City FC attack 0.806 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.232 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: FC Seoul (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
FC Seoul xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Suwon City FC xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC kick off?
FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 08:30 on Sunday 8 May 2022 at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC?
FC Seoul 3 - 1 Suwon City FC.
Where is FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What competition is FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC part of?
FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Seoul a 42% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making FC Seoul the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both FC Seoul and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Suwon City FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Seoul and Suwon City FC in?
FC Seoul (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Suwon City FC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Seoul's attack rating (1.08) and Suwon City FC's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Suwon City FC's attack (0.81x) against FC Seoul's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Seoul Win
42%
2.39
30%
3.35
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
FC Seoul xG
Total xG
2.28
1.00
Suwon City FC xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
15%
6.50
8%
12.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are FC Seoul and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for FC Seoul and 1.00 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, FC Seoul have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 12W 11D 15L record — L-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Suwon City FC's form line: 14W 9D 15L from 38 games, 1.34 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for FC Seoul against 1.34 for Suwon City FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Seoul have posted 1.11 PPG from 19 outings (5W 6D 8L).
On the road, Suwon City FC have gone 5W 6D 8L from 19 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Seoul are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.39 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC in 61%.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Seoul
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Seoul and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
FC Seoul have gone 12W 11D 15L in their last 38 games (1.24 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 14W 9D 15L in their last 38 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Seoul at home or Suwon City FC away?
FC Seoul's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Seoul at home: 1.11 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 5 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Seoul won 7-2 on 12 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Seoul have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Suwon City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FC Seoul
4
Draws
0
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Seoul have won 6, Suwon City FC have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Seoul and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2025, when Suwon City FC 1-1 FC Seoul.
Who has won more matches between FC Seoul and Suwon City FC?
FC Seoul have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Seoul are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Suwon City FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Seoul 42%, Suwon City FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (FC Seoul) and 58% (Suwon City FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 16% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Seoul keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; FC Seoul have failed to score in 42% of games; Suwon City FC in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Seoul home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Seoul play Suwon City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of FC Seoul's recent matches and 58% of Suwon City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of FC Seoul's matches and 58% of Suwon City FC's.
Do FC Seoul and Suwon City FC tend to score early?
FC Seoul have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Suwon City FC in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Seoul cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Suwon City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Seoul beat Suwon City FC 3-1 at Seoul World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Seoul 1.28 xG and Suwon City FC 1.00 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. FC Seoul beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Seoul attack 1.08 / defence 1.05 against Suwon City FC attack 0.81 / defence 0.96, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Seoul 42% | Draw 30% | Suwon City FC 28%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Seoul 45%, Suwon City FC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Seoul's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Seoul 1.24 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Seoul win broke the near-deadlock. FC Seoul (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.