FC Seoul 1-0 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours FC Seoul (41%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as FC Seoul face Suwon City FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Suwon City FC make the trip to Seoul World Cup Stadium to face FC Seoul in K League 1 (matchday 32). The match kicks off on Sunday 29 September 2024 at 09:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
FC Seoul have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home, FC Seoul have gone 6W 0D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Suwon City FC's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W D L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Suwon City FC away from home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in FC Seoul's favour (2.00 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record in our data favours FC Seoul, who have won 4 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against Suwon City FC — Suwon City FC have 0 wins, with 1 draw.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.6 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 22 Jun 2024, ended FC Seoul 3–0 Suwon City FC — a FC Seoul win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both FC Seoul and goals — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 4.6 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
FC Seoul — key trading statistics (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Suwon City FC — key trading statistics (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 94% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 33 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Seoul 59% and Suwon City FC 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Seoul 51% | Suwon City FC 59%). Note also that Suwon City FC surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while FC Seoul recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 39% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Seoul 1.55 xG and Suwon City FC 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Seoul attack 1.086 / defence 0.951 | Suwon City FC attack 1.212 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.221. Suwon City FC have an above-average attack rating of 1.212, which lifts their away xG to 1.41. Data: built from FC Seoul's last 64 games and Suwon City FC's last 64.
Result probabilities: FC Seoul 41% | Draw 24% | Suwon City FC 35%. Fair-value odds: FC Seoul 2.44 | Draw 4.09 | Suwon City FC 2.89. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Seoul are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Seoul if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (FC Seoul's last 10 home games and Suwon City FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: FC Seoul 40% (last 10 home games) | Suwon City FC 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 32 | Venue: Seoul World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 29 September 2024 at 09:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Seoul 41% | Draw 24% | Suwon City FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG FC Seoul 1.55 / Suwon City FC 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: FC Seoul attack 1.086 / def 0.951 | Suwon City FC attack 1.212 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: FC Seoul (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
FC Seoul xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Suwon City FC xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC FAQs
What time does FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC kick off?
FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 09:30 UK time on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC?
FC Seoul 1 - 0 Suwon City FC.
Where is FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What competition is FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC part of?
FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 32) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Seoul a 41% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 35% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC Seoul the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both FC Seoul and Suwon City FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Seoul's attack rating (1.09) and Suwon City FC's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Suwon City FC's attack (1.21x) against FC Seoul's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from FC Seoul's last 64 games and Suwon City FC's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Seoul Win
41%
2.44
24%
4.09
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
FC Seoul xG
Total xG
2.96
1.41
Suwon City FC xG
2.44
41%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
24%
4.08
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
10%
9.97
7%
13.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.3 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.8 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are FC Seoul and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for FC Seoul and 1.41 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 69 outings, FC Seoul have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 27W 21D 21L record — W-W-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Suwon City FC's form line: 23W 14D 32L from 69 games, 1.20 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for FC Seoul against 1.20 for Suwon City FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Seoul have posted 1.56 PPG from their last 34 home games (15W 8D 11L).
On the road, Suwon City FC have gone 11W 6D 17L from their last 34 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Seoul come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Seoul are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.38 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC in 61%.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Seoul
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
FC Seoul (Home) vs Suwon City FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Seoul
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
❓ FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC Form FAQs
What form are FC Seoul and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
FC Seoul have gone 27W 21D 21L in their last 69 games (1.48 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 23W 14D 32L in their last 69 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Seoul at home or Suwon City FC away?
FC Seoul's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Seoul at home: 1.56 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to July 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent in our data was on 5 October 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Seoul won FC Seoul 7-2 Suwon City FC on 12 Jul 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Seoul have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Suwon City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FC Seoul
4
Draws
0
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Suwon City FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Seoul have won 6, Suwon City FC have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Seoul and Suwon City FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 October 2025: Suwon City FC 1-1 FC Seoul.
Who has won more matches between FC Seoul and Suwon City FC?
FC Seoul have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Seoul are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Seoul 56%, Suwon City FC 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (FC Seoul) and 62% (Suwon City FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Suwon City FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Seoul home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Seoul and Suwon City FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of FC Seoul's games and 59% of Suwon City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Seoul and Suwon City FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of FC Seoul's matches and 62% of Suwon City FC's.
Do FC Seoul and Suwon City FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of FC Seoul's recent matches and 94% of Suwon City FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Seoul edge out Suwon City FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Seoul beat Suwon City FC 1-0 at Seoul World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Seoul 1.55 xG and Suwon City FC 1.41 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Suwon City FC landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Seoul attack 1.09 / defence 0.95 against Suwon City FC attack 1.21 / defence 1.01, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Seoul 41% | Draw 24% | Suwon City FC 35%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Seoul 51%, Suwon City FC 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Seoul's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Seoul 1.48 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Seoul win broke the near-deadlock. FC Seoul (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.