FC Seoul 2-3 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Seoul at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Seoul vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Seoul host Daegu FC at Seoul World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Relegation Round - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 October 2022 at 06:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, FC Seoul have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
FC Seoul's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Seoul World Cup Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Daegu FC stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 K League 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Daegu FC away from home this season: 0W 6D 4L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (FC Seoul) versus 0.80 (Daegu FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Seoul register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Daegu FC in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
FC Seoul in-play tendencies (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Daegu FC in-play tendencies (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Seoul 52% versus Daegu FC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Seoul 44% | Daegu FC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Seoul 1.63 xG and Daegu FC 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Seoul attack 0.912 / defence 1.028 | Daegu FC attack 0.914 / defence 1.280. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.240. Daegu FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.280 — this is suppressing FC Seoul's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 FC Seoul games / 66 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Seoul 48% | Draw 25% | Daegu FC 27%. Fair-value odds: FC Seoul 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Daegu FC 3.70. FC Seoul hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Seoul are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Seoul offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: FC Seoul 60% | Daegu FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Seoul vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Seoul World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 06:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Seoul 48% | Draw 25% | Daegu FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG FC Seoul 1.63 / Daegu FC 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: FC Seoul attack 0.912 / def 1.028 | Daegu FC attack 0.914 / def 1.280 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: FC Seoul (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
FC Seoul xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Daegu FC xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Seoul vs Daegu FC kick off?
FC Seoul vs Daegu FC kicked off at 06:00 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Seoul vs Daegu FC?
FC Seoul 2 - 3 Daegu FC.
Where is FC Seoul vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What competition is FC Seoul vs Daegu FC part of?
FC Seoul vs Daegu FC is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Seoul vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Seoul a 48% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC Seoul the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Seoul vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FC Seoul and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Seoul vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Daegu FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Seoul and Daegu FC in?
FC Seoul (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Daegu FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC Seoul's attack at 0.91x the league average against Daegu FC's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Daegu FC's attack versus FC Seoul's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Seoul Win
48%
2.07
25%
4.07
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
FC Seoul xG
Total xG
2.79
1.17
Daegu FC xG
2.07
48%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
20%
5.10
Win to Nil
15%
6.65
5%
18.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.6 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Seoul vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are FC Seoul and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for FC Seoul and 1.17 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Seoul vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Seoul's recent record stands at 22W 22D 27L from 71 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-L in the last five.
Daegu FC, meanwhile, have gone 22W 24D 25L across 71 games — 1.27 PPG, with L-W-L-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Seoul on 1.24 PPG, Daegu FC on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Seoul have managed 11W 10D 14L from 35 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Daegu FC's away record stands at 7W 13D 15L across 35 trips, a 0.97 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
FC Seoul are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.14 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 71 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Seoul
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Seoul and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
FC Seoul have gone 22W 22D 27L in their last 71 games (1.24 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 22W 24D 25L in their last 71 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Seoul at home or Daegu FC away?
FC Seoul's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Seoul at home: 1.23 PPG; Daegu FC away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Seoul and Daegu FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 8 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Apr 2023, when FC Seoul won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Seoul's record when hosting Daegu FC specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Seoul
4
Draws
3
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Seoul have won 3, Daegu FC have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Seoul and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2025, when FC Seoul 2-2 Daegu FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Seoul are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Seoul 49%, Daegu FC 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (FC Seoul) and 49% (Daegu FC).
On the defensive side: FC Seoul have failed to score in 31% of games; Daegu FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Seoul home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Seoul play Daegu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 49% of FC Seoul's games and 63% of Daegu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Seoul vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of FC Seoul's recent games and 49% of Daegu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Seoul and Daegu FC tend to score early?
FC Seoul have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Daegu FC in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Daegu FC defy the odds to beat FC Seoul 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC beat FC Seoul 2-3 at Seoul World Cup Stadium, Relegation Round - 1, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Seoul 1.63 xG and Daegu FC 1.17 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Daegu FC outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Seoul attack 0.91 / defence 1.03 against Daegu FC attack 0.91 / defence 1.28, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Seoul 48% | Draw 25% | Daegu FC 27%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Daegu FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Seoul 44%, Daegu FC 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Seoul's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Daegu FC's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Seoul 1.24 PPG, Daegu FC 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daegu FC win broke the near-deadlock. FC Seoul (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Daegu FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.