FC Seoul 1-2 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates FC Seoul at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FC Seoul face Daegu FC.

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Match Analysis

FC Seoul host Daegu FC at Seoul World Cup Stadium in K League 1 (matchday 13). Kick-off is Sunday 19 May 2024 at 09:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, FC Seoul have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

FC Seoul's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Daegu FC stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Daegu FC away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (FC Seoul) versus 1.50 (Daegu FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for FC Seoul, 2 for Daegu FC and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Apr 2024, ended FC Seoul 0–0 Daegu FC — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

FC Seoul in-play tendencies (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 48%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Daegu FC in-play tendencies (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Seoul 59% versus Daegu FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Seoul 46% | Daegu FC 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FC Seoul surrender their half-time lead 48% of the time, while Daegu FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Seoul 1.78 xG and Daegu FC 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Seoul attack 1.119 / defence 1.134 | Daegu FC attack 0.860 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.271. Data: built from FC Seoul's last 45 games and Daegu FC's last 45.

Result probabilities: FC Seoul 50% | Draw 23% | Daegu FC 27%. Fair-value odds: FC Seoul 2.00 | Draw 4.26 | Daegu FC 3.77. FC Seoul hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, FC Seoul are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Seoul offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC Seoul's last 10 home games and Daegu FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Seoul 50% (last 10 home games) | Daegu FC 60% (last 10 away games).

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