Daejeon Citizen 3-2 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Suwon City FC at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Suwon City FC make the trip to Daejeon World Cup Stadium to face Daejeon Citizen in K League 1, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Sunday 10 August 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Daejeon Citizen (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Daejeon Citizen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Daejeon Citizen at Daejeon World Cup Stadium this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Suwon City FC have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Suwon City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Suwon City FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Daejeon Citizen against 1.40 for Suwon City FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Daejeon Citizen lead 3W to 5W over the last 9 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2025, ended 0–3 with Suwon City FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Daejeon Citizen half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Suwon City FC half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daejeon Citizen 58% versus Suwon City FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daejeon Citizen 47% | Suwon City FC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daejeon Citizen 1.06 xG and Suwon City FC 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daejeon Citizen attack 0.747 / defence 0.891 | Suwon City FC attack 1.218 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.271. Daejeon Citizen's attack strength of 0.747 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Suwon City FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.218 — the away xG of 1.38 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 Daejeon Citizen games / 57 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 29% | Draw 27% | Suwon City FC 44%. Fair-value odds: Daejeon Citizen 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | Suwon City FC 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Suwon City FC as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Daejeon Citizen 50% | Suwon City FC 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Daejeon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Aug 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 29% | Draw 27% | Suwon City FC 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Daejeon Citizen 1.06 / Suwon City FC 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Daejeon Citizen attack 0.747 / def 0.891 | Suwon City FC attack 1.218 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Daejeon Citizen xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Suwon City FC xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 10 August 2025 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon City FC?
Daejeon Citizen 3 - 2 Suwon City FC.
Where is Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon City FC part of?
Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Daejeon Citizen a 29% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Daejeon Citizen and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and Suwon City FC?
Record (9 meetings): Daejeon Citizen 3W | Draws 1 | Suwon City FC 5W.
What form are Daejeon Citizen and Suwon City FC in?
Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Suwon City FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Daejeon Citizen's attack at 0.75x the league average against Suwon City FC's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Suwon City FC's attack (1.22x) against Daejeon Citizen's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
29%
3.47
27%
3.68
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Daejeon Citizen xG
Total xG
2.44
1.38
Suwon City FC xG
3.47
29%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
7%
13.80
15%
6.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 12.0 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Daejeon Citizen and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Daejeon Citizen and 1.38 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 62 outings, Daejeon Citizen have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 22W 21D 19L record — D-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Daejeon Citizen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Suwon City FC's form line: 22W 15D 25L from 62 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Suwon City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Daejeon Citizen against 1.31 for Suwon City FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Daejeon Citizen have posted 1.45 PPG from 31 outings (12W 9D 10L).
On the road, Suwon City FC have gone 8W 9D 14L from 31 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Daejeon Citizen are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.37 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 62 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daejeon Citizen
Blended
Suwon City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daejeon Citizen and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Daejeon Citizen have gone 22W 21D 19L in their last 62 games (1.40 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 22W 15D 25L in their last 62 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daejeon Citizen at home or Suwon City FC away?
Daejeon Citizen's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daejeon Citizen at home: 1.45 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 August 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Suwon City FC won 3-0 on 18 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daejeon Citizen have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Suwon City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Daejeon Citizen
1
Draws
5
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Daejeon Citizen have won 4, Suwon City FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Daejeon Citizen and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2025, when Daejeon Citizen 3-2 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Daejeon Citizen and Suwon City FC?
Suwon City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Daejeon Citizen see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daejeon Citizen 45%, Suwon City FC 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Daejeon Citizen) and 48% (Suwon City FC).
On the defensive side: Daejeon Citizen keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Daejeon Citizen have failed to score in 36% of games; Suwon City FC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daejeon Citizen home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daejeon Citizen play Suwon City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Daejeon Citizen's recent matches and 61% of Suwon City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Daejeon Citizen's recent games and 48% of Suwon City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daejeon Citizen and Suwon City FC tend to score early?
Daejeon Citizen have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Suwon City FC in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Daejeon Citizen defy the odds to beat Suwon City FC 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daejeon Citizen beat Suwon City FC 3-2 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daejeon Citizen 1.06 xG and Suwon City FC 1.38 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Daejeon Citizen beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daejeon Citizen attack 0.75 / defence 0.89 against Suwon City FC attack 1.22 / defence 1.10, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daejeon Citizen 29% | Draw 27% | Suwon City FC 44%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Daejeon Citizen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daejeon Citizen 47%, Suwon City FC 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daejeon Citizen 1.40 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daejeon Citizen win broke the near-deadlock. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.