Daejeon Citizen 0-1 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Daejeon Citizen take on Jeonbuk Motors.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Daejeon Citizen and Jeonbuk Motors meet at Daejeon World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 March 2026 at 05:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Daejeon Citizen have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Daejeon Citizen's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Daejeon World Cup Stadium this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jeonbuk Motors (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Jeonbuk Motors away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Daejeon Citizen, 1.60 for Jeonbuk Motors — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Daejeon Citizen have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Jeonbuk Motors in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Daejeon Citizen, 3 for Jeonbuk Motors and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 1–3 with Jeonbuk Motors winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Daejeon Citizen — key trading statistics (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Jeonbuk Motors — key trading statistics (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daejeon Citizen 59% versus Jeonbuk Motors 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daejeon Citizen 50% | Jeonbuk Motors 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daejeon Citizen 0.98 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daejeon Citizen attack 0.998 / defence 0.953 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.865 / defence 0.795. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.276. Jeonbuk Motors's defence strength of 0.795 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 37 Daejeon Citizen games / 37 Jeonbuk Motors games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 29% | Draw 39% | Jeonbuk Motors 33%. Fair-value odds: Daejeon Citizen 3.45 | Draw 2.56 | Jeonbuk Motors 3.03. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.03 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. This conflicts with form data: Daejeon Citizen 70% | Jeonbuk Motors 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Daejeon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Mar 2026, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 29% | Draw 39% | Jeonbuk Motors 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 45% | xG Daejeon Citizen 0.98 / Jeonbuk Motors 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Daejeon Citizen attack 0.998 / def 0.953 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.865 / def 0.795 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Daejeon Citizen xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Jeonbuk Motors xG
45%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 05:00 on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Daejeon Citizen 0 - 1 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives Daejeon Citizen a 29% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 33% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Daejeon Citizen and Jeonbuk Motors will score (BTTS).
Will Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and Jeonbuk Motors?
Record (8 meetings): Daejeon Citizen 1W | Draws 4 | Jeonbuk Motors 3W.
What form are Daejeon Citizen and Jeonbuk Motors in?
Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Daejeon Citizen's attack rating (1.00) and Jeonbuk Motors's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jeonbuk Motors's attack (0.86x) against Daejeon Citizen's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.47
39%
2.59
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Daejeon Citizen xG
Total xG
2.03
1.05
Jeonbuk Motors xG
3.47
29%
Home win
2.59
39%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
10%
9.93
12%
8.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 13.8 | 7.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Daejeon Citizen and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Daejeon Citizen and 1.05 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Daejeon Citizen come into this having played 76 games, going 30W 23D 23L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-W.
On the other side, Jeonbuk Motors sit at 1.64 PPG from 76 outings (35W 20D 21L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Daejeon Citizen against 1.64 for Jeonbuk Motors. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Daejeon Citizen's home form reads 18W 9D 10L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Jeonbuk Motors have taken 1.51 points per game from 37 outings (16W 8D 13L).
Attack vs Defence
Daejeon Citizen are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Jeonbuk Motors are on 1.51 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daejeon Citizen
Current Season
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daejeon Citizen and Jeonbuk Motors in coming into this match?
Daejeon Citizen have gone 30W 23D 23L in their last 76 games (1.49 PPG), while Jeonbuk Motors have gone 35W 20D 21L in their last 76 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daejeon Citizen at home or Jeonbuk Motors away?
Daejeon Citizen's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daejeon Citizen at home: 1.70 PPG; Jeonbuk Motors away: 1.51 PPG.
Have Daejeon Citizen or Jeonbuk Motors been keeping clean sheets recently?
Daejeon Citizen have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Jeonbuk Motors in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 21 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daejeon Citizen have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Jeonbuk Motors — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Daejeon Citizen
5
Draws
4
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and Jeonbuk Motors?
From 10 meetings on record, Daejeon Citizen have won 1, Jeonbuk Motors have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Daejeon Citizen and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
They last met on 21 July 2026, when Jeonbuk Motors 0-0 Daejeon Citizen.
Who has won more matches between Daejeon Citizen and Jeonbuk Motors?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Daejeon Citizen see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daejeon Citizen 51%, Jeonbuk Motors 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Daejeon Citizen) and 49% (Jeonbuk Motors).
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors in 38%; Daejeon Citizen have failed to score in 30% of games; Jeonbuk Motors in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daejeon Citizen home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daejeon Citizen play Jeonbuk Motors?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Daejeon Citizen's recent matches and 38% of Jeonbuk Motors's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Daejeon Citizen's recent games and 49% of Jeonbuk Motors's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Jeonbuk Motors edge out Daejeon Citizen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors beat Daejeon Citizen 0-1 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daejeon Citizen 0.98 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.05 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Daejeon Citizen fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daejeon Citizen attack 1.00 / defence 0.95 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.86 / defence 0.80, drawn from 37/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Daejeon Citizen 29% | Draw 39% | Jeonbuk Motors 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Jeonbuk Motors win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daejeon Citizen 50%, Jeonbuk Motors 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daejeon Citizen 1.49 PPG, Jeonbuk Motors 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeonbuk Motors win broke the near-deadlock. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.