Daejeon Citizen 1-1 FC Anyang – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daejeon Citizen at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Daejeon World Cup Stadium plays host to Daejeon Citizen versus FC Anyang in K League 1, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Monday 2 March 2026 at 05:00 UTC.
Current Form
Daejeon Citizen's overall K League 1 record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Daejeon Citizen at Daejeon World Cup Stadium this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Anyang (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, FC Anyang have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Daejeon Citizen, 1.60 for FC Anyang — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Daejeon Citizen have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, FC Anyang in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Daejeon Citizen lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2025, ended 2–3 with FC Anyang winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Daejeon Citizen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
FC Anyang goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Daejeon Citizen 60% and FC Anyang 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daejeon Citizen 55% | FC Anyang 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daejeon Citizen 1.47 xG and FC Anyang 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daejeon Citizen attack 1.052 / defence 0.989 | FC Anyang attack 0.953 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.306. Data: 33 Daejeon Citizen games / 33 FC Anyang games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 39% | Draw 32% | FC Anyang 29%. Fair-value odds: Daejeon Citizen 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | FC Anyang 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Daejeon Citizen as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Daejeon Citizen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Daejeon Citizen 70% | FC Anyang 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Daejeon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 2 Mar 2026, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 39% | Draw 32% | FC Anyang 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 58% | xG Daejeon Citizen 1.47 / FC Anyang 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Daejeon Citizen attack 1.052 / def 0.989 | FC Anyang attack 0.953 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Daejeon Citizen (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Daejeon Citizen xG
Expected Goals
1.23
FC Anyang xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang kick off?
Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang kicked off at 05:00 on Monday 2 March 2026 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang?
Daejeon Citizen 1 - 1 FC Anyang.
Where is Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang being played?
The match is being played at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang part of?
Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang?
Our statistical model gives Daejeon Citizen a 39% chance of winning, FC Anyang a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Daejeon Citizen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Daejeon Citizen and FC Anyang will score (BTTS).
Will Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and FC Anyang?
Record (3 meetings): Daejeon Citizen 1W | Draws 1 | FC Anyang 1W.
What form are Daejeon Citizen and FC Anyang in?
Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. FC Anyang (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Daejeon Citizen's attack rating (1.05) and FC Anyang's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Anyang's attack (0.95x) against Daejeon Citizen's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daejeon Citizen Win
39%
2.54
32%
3.12
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Daejeon Citizen xG
Total xG
2.70
1.23
FC Anyang xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
11%
8.70
7%
15.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.2 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Daejeon Citizen and FC Anyang expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Daejeon Citizen and 1.23 for FC Anyang, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, Daejeon Citizen have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 18W 11D 9L record — W-W-L-D-W across the most recent five.
FC Anyang's form line: 14W 7D 17L from 38 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Daejeon Citizen are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Anyang.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Daejeon Citizen have posted 1.84 PPG from 19 outings (10W 5D 4L).
On the road, FC Anyang have gone 6W 3D 10L from 19 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Daejeon Citizen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Daejeon Citizen are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; FC Anyang are on 1.29 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Daejeon Citizen have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; FC Anyang in 61%.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daejeon Citizen
Current Season
FC Anyang
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daejeon Citizen and FC Anyang in coming into this match?
Daejeon Citizen have gone 18W 11D 9L in their last 38 games (1.71 PPG), while FC Anyang have gone 14W 7D 17L in their last 38 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daejeon Citizen at home or FC Anyang away?
Daejeon Citizen's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daejeon Citizen at home: 1.84 PPG; FC Anyang away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since May 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daejeon Citizen have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Anyang — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Daejeon Citizen
2
Draws
1
FC Anyang
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and FC Anyang?
From 5 meetings on record, Daejeon Citizen have won 2, FC Anyang have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Daejeon Citizen and FC Anyang last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when FC Anyang 1-2 Daejeon Citizen.
Who has won more matches between Daejeon Citizen and FC Anyang?
Daejeon Citizen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Daejeon Citizen see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
FC Anyang are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daejeon Citizen 58%, FC Anyang 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Daejeon Citizen) and 58% (FC Anyang).
On the defensive side: Daejeon Citizen have failed to score in 26% of games; FC Anyang in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daejeon Citizen home games / FC Anyang away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daejeon Citizen play FC Anyang?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Daejeon Citizen's games and 63% of FC Anyang's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Daejeon Citizen's recent games and 58% of FC Anyang's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daejeon Citizen and FC Anyang tend to score early?
Daejeon Citizen have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, FC Anyang in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Daejeon Citizen and FC Anyang share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daejeon Citizen and FC Anyang finished level at 1-1 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daejeon Citizen 1.47 xG and FC Anyang 1.23 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daejeon Citizen attack 1.05 / defence 0.99 against FC Anyang attack 0.95 / defence 0.96, drawn from 33/33 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daejeon Citizen 39% | Draw 32% | FC Anyang 29%, with Daejeon Citizen to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daejeon Citizen 55%, FC Anyang 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
FC Anyang's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Daejeon Citizen arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.