Daegu FC 0-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ulsan Hyundai FC make the trip to DGB Daegu Bank Park to face Daegu FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 August 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Daegu FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Daegu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Daegu FC at DGB Daegu Bank Park this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ulsan Hyundai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ulsan Hyundai FC away from home this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Ulsan Hyundai FC arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Daegu FC, 1 for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jun 2023, ended 1–3 with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Daegu FC — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Ulsan Hyundai FC — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Daegu FC 58% and Ulsan Hyundai FC 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 47% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.17 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.956 / defence 0.970 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.157 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.176. Data: 57 Daegu FC games / 57 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 32% | Draw 28% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 39%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Daegu FC 50% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Aug 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 32% | Draw 28% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Daegu FC 1.17 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 0.956 / def 0.970 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.157 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 5 August 2023 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Daegu FC 0 - 0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 32% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Record (1 meetings): Daegu FC 0W | Draws 0 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 1W.
What form are Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Daegu FC's attack at 0.96x the league average against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack (1.16x) against Daegu FC's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
32%
3.11
28%
3.52
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.49
1.32
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
9%
11.63
12%
8.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.0 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Daegu FC and 1.32 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Daegu FC's recent record stands at 18W 25D 19L from 62 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Daegu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ulsan Hyundai FC, meanwhile, have gone 40W 12D 10L across 62 games — 2.13 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Ulsan Hyundai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ulsan Hyundai FC by 0.86 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Daegu FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Daegu FC have managed 12W 11D 7L from 30 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record stands at 18W 6D 6L across 30 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Daegu FC are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.71 scored and 0.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 63%.
Last 62 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Blended
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 18W 25D 19L in their last 62 games (1.27 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 40W 12D 10L in their last 62 (2.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.57 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Daegu FC or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Daegu FC have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 26 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daegu FC have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ulsan Hyundai FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Daegu FC
4
Draws
6
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 0, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2025, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 50%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Daegu FC) and 50% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 57% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Daegu FC's recent games and 50% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Daegu FC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Daegu FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 25, as Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC drew 0-0 in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.17 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.32 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Daegu FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Ulsan Hyundai FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.96 / defence 0.97 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.16 / defence 0.92, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 32% | Draw 28% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 39%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 47%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Daegu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.