Daegu FC 0-0 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 40%, yet in-form Suwon City FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 32 as Daegu FC welcome Suwon City FC to DGB Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 September 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Daegu FC stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Daegu FC at DGB Arena this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at DGB Arena. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Daegu FC are significantly better at DGB Arena than their overall form suggests.
Suwon City FC — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Suwon City FC's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Suwon City FC's 2.00 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Daegu FC's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Daegu FC trading profile (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Suwon City FC trading profile (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Daegu FC 57% and Suwon City FC 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 47% | Suwon City FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.49 xG and Suwon City FC 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 1.107 / defence 1.086 | Suwon City FC attack 1.087 / defence 1.354. League average goals — home 0.992 / away 1.158. Suwon City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.354 — this is suppressing Daegu FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Daegu FC games / 30 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 40% | Draw 25% | Suwon City FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | Suwon City FC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Daegu FC at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Suwon City FC (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daegu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Daegu FC 50% | Suwon City FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: DGB Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 40% | Draw 25% | Suwon City FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Daegu FC 1.49 / Suwon City FC 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 1.107 / def 1.086 | Suwon City FC attack 1.087 / def 1.354 | league avg home 0.992 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Suwon City FC xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at DGB Arena.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Daegu FC 0 - 0 Suwon City FC.
Where is Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at DGB Arena.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC part of?
Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 40% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Daegu FC and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Suwon City FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Daegu FC and Suwon City FC in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Suwon City FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Daegu FC's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Suwon City FC's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon City FC's attack versus Daegu FC's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
40%
2.49
25%
3.99
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.86
1.37
Suwon City FC xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
10%
9.79
8%
12.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.9 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.7 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Daegu FC and 1.37 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Daegu FC have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 13W 8D 9L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Suwon City FC's form line: 12W 8D 10L from 30 games, 1.47 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Daegu FC on 1.57 PPG, Suwon City FC on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Daegu FC have posted 1.86 PPG from 14 outings (7W 5D 2L).
On the road, Suwon City FC have gone 5W 4D 5L from 14 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Daegu FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Daegu FC are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.47 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC in 63%.
Last 30 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 13W 8D 9L in their last 30 games (1.57 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 12W 8D 10L in their last 30 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Suwon City FC away?
Daegu FC's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.86 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Daegu FC or Suwon City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Daegu FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Suwon City FC in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Daegu FC and Suwon City FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 2 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Daegu FC's record when hosting Suwon City FC specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Daegu FC
5
Draws
2
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 3, Suwon City FC have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2025, when Suwon City FC 1-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Suwon City FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Daegu FC see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Suwon City FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 64%, Suwon City FC 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Daegu FC) and 64% (Suwon City FC).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Suwon City FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play Suwon City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Daegu FC's games and 64% of Suwon City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Daegu FC's recent games and 64% of Suwon City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Daegu FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at DGB Arena, Regular Season - 32, as Daegu FC and Suwon City FC drew 0-0 in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.49 xG and Suwon City FC 1.37 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Daegu FC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Suwon City FC landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 1.11 / defence 1.09 against Suwon City FC attack 1.09 / defence 1.35, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 40% | Draw 25% | Suwon City FC 35%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 47%, Suwon City FC 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daegu FC 1.57 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Daegu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.