Daegu FC 1-2 Suwon Bluewings – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Daegu FC at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
DGB Daegu Bank Park plays host to Daegu FC versus Suwon Bluewings in K League 1, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Wednesday 3 August 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Daegu FC (all games): 2W 7D 1L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Daegu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Daegu FC's home record at DGB Daegu Bank Park: 5W 4D 1L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at DGB Daegu Bank Park. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Daegu FC are significantly better at DGB Daegu Bank Park than their overall form suggests.
Suwon Bluewings's overall K League 1 record this term: 0W 5D 5L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Suwon Bluewings, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Suwon Bluewings have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Daegu FC. A 0.80 PPG lead over Suwon Bluewings (1.30 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Daegu FC 2W, Suwon Bluewings 1W, 2D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Jul 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Daegu FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Suwon Bluewings goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 57% versus Suwon Bluewings 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 44% | Suwon Bluewings 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.52 xG and Suwon Bluewings 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 1.036 / defence 0.786 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.671 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.307 / away 1.192. Daegu FC's defence rating of 0.786 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Daegu FC games / 56 Suwon Bluewings games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 58% | Draw 27% | Suwon Bluewings 15%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 1.72 | Draw 3.70 | Suwon Bluewings 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Daegu FC (58%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Daegu FC at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates are neutral: Daegu FC 50% | Suwon Bluewings 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 Aug 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 58% | Draw 27% | Suwon Bluewings 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 37% | xG Daegu FC 1.52 / Suwon Bluewings 0.63 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 1.036 / def 0.786 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.671 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.307 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
0.63
Suwon Bluewings xG
37%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings kick off?
Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings kicked off at 11:30 on Wednesday 3 August 2022 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Daegu FC 1 - 2 Suwon Bluewings.
Where is Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings part of?
Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 58% chance of winning, Suwon Bluewings a 15% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Record (5 meetings): Daegu FC 2W | Draws 2 | Suwon Bluewings 1W.
What form are Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-L-D. Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Daegu FC's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Suwon Bluewings's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. Flip it around — Suwon Bluewings's attack (0.67x) against Daegu FC's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.63.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.5%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
58%
1.71
27%
3.68
15%
6.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.5%
Home win
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.15
0.63
Suwon Bluewings xG
1.71
58%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
6.89
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
53%
1.88
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
31%
3.22
3%
31.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 7.3 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.7 | 11.1 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.5 | 8.5 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Daegu FC and 0.63 for Suwon Bluewings, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 61 outings, Daegu FC have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 20W 22D 19L record — D-D-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Daegu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Suwon Bluewings's form line: 16W 19D 26L from 61 games, 1.10 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-D. The sample for Suwon Bluewings is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for Daegu FC against 1.10 for Suwon Bluewings. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Daegu FC have posted 1.63 PPG from 30 outings (13W 10D 7L).
On the road, Suwon Bluewings have gone 7W 8D 15L from 30 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Daegu FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Daegu FC are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Suwon Bluewings are on 0.93 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 61 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Blended
Suwon Bluewings
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 20W 22D 19L in their last 61 games (1.34 PPG), while Suwon Bluewings have gone 16W 19D 26L in their last 61 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Suwon Bluewings away?
Daegu FC's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.63 PPG; Suwon Bluewings away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Daegu FC or Suwon Bluewings been keeping clean sheets recently?
Daegu FC have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Suwon Bluewings in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Daegu FC won 3-0 on 8 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daegu FC have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Suwon Bluewings — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Daegu FC
3
Draws
2
Suwon Bluewings
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 5, Suwon Bluewings have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings last play each other?
They last met on 17 September 2023, when Suwon Bluewings 0-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Daegu FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Suwon Bluewings see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 50%, Suwon Bluewings 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Daegu FC) and 43% (Suwon Bluewings).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Suwon Bluewings in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Suwon Bluewings away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play Suwon Bluewings?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 37% of Suwon Bluewings's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Daegu FC's recent games and 43% of Suwon Bluewings's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Suwon Bluewings defy the odds to beat Daegu FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon Bluewings beat Daegu FC 1-2 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 26, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.52 xG and Suwon Bluewings 0.63 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Suwon Bluewings outscored their 0.63 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 1.04 / defence 0.79 against Suwon Bluewings attack 0.67 / defence 1.12, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 58% | Draw 27% | Suwon Bluewings 15%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Suwon Bluewings win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 44%, Suwon Bluewings 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daegu FC 1.34 PPG, Suwon Bluewings 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Suwon Bluewings win broke the near-deadlock. Daegu FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Suwon Bluewings (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.