Daegu FC 0-0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Gimcheon Sangmu FC travel to DGB Daegu Bank Park to take on Daegu FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 August 2022, 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Daegu FC have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Daegu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Daegu FC at DGB Daegu Bank Park this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Daegu FC are significantly better at DGB Daegu Bank Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 K League 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.50 PPG (Daegu FC) versus 0.80 (Gimcheon Sangmu FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Daegu FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Daegu FC, 0 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Daegu FC trading profile (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Gimcheon Sangmu FC trading profile (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 63% versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 48% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.51 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.984 / defence 0.993 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.041 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.260. Data: 60 Daegu FC games / 27 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 42% | Draw 26% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 32%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Daegu FC at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daegu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Daegu FC 60% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 42% | Draw 26% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Daegu FC 1.51 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 0.984 / def 0.993 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.041 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Daegu FC 0 - 0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 42% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Record (2 meetings): Daegu FC 1W | Draws 1 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0W.
What form are Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Daegu FC's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. The same calculation in reverse, Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack versus Daegu FC's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
42%
2.41
26%
3.79
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.81
1.30
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
2.41
42%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
11%
8.86
7%
14.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.8 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Daegu FC and 1.30 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 27 outings, Daegu FC have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 5W 12D 10L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Daegu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's form line: 6W 8D 13L from 27 games, 0.96 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-L. The sample for Gimcheon Sangmu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Daegu FC on 1.00 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Daegu FC have posted 1.46 PPG from 13 outings (5W 4D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Daegu FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 2W 5D 6L from 13 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Daegu FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Daegu FC are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Gimcheon Sangmu FC are on 1.22 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Daegu FC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 27 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Blended
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 5W 12D 10L in their last 27 games (1.00 PPG), while Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 6W 8D 13L in their last 27 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Gimcheon Sangmu FC away?
Daegu FC's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.46 PPG; Gimcheon Sangmu FC away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 14 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2024, when Daegu FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Daegu FC's record when hosting Gimcheon Sangmu FC specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Daegu FC
3
Draws
4
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 3, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2025, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-2 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 54%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Daegu FC) and 54% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Daegu FC's games and 62% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Daegu FC's recent games and 54% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC tend to score early?
Daegu FC have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Daegu FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC finished level at 0-0 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 23, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.51 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.30 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Daegu FC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Gimcheon Sangmu FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.98 / defence 0.99 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.04 / defence 1.06, drawn from 60/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 42% | Draw 26% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 32%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 48%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daegu FC 1.00 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Daegu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.