Daegu FC 4-3 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Jeonbuk Motors travel to DGB Daegu Bank Park to take on Daegu FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 October 2024, 07:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Daegu FC stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Daegu FC's home record at DGB Daegu Bank Park: 3W 4D 3L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Jeonbuk Motors have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Jeonbuk Motors away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Daegu FC at 1.30 PPG versus Jeonbuk Motors's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Daegu FC have won 2, Jeonbuk Motors 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Jun 2024, ended 3–0 with Daegu FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Daegu FC trading profile (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Jeonbuk Motors trading profile (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 50% versus Jeonbuk Motors 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 41% | Jeonbuk Motors 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.33 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.949 / defence 0.922 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.136 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.203. Data: 65 Daegu FC games / 65 Jeonbuk Motors games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 38% | Draw 26% | Jeonbuk Motors 35%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Jeonbuk Motors 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Daegu FC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daegu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data: Daegu FC 50% | Jeonbuk Motors 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Oct 2024, 07:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 38% | Draw 26% | Jeonbuk Motors 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Daegu FC 1.33 / Jeonbuk Motors 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 0.949 / def 0.922 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.136 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Jeonbuk Motors xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 07:00 on Sunday 6 October 2024 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Daegu FC 4 - 3 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 38% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
Record (5 meetings): Daegu FC 2W | Draws 1 | Jeonbuk Motors 2W.
What form are Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Daegu FC's attack at 0.95x the league average against Jeonbuk Motors's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jeonbuk Motors's attack versus Daegu FC's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
38%
2.60
26%
3.78
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.59
1.26
Jeonbuk Motors xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
11%
9.19
9%
10.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Daegu FC and 1.26 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 70 outings, Daegu FC have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 21W 25D 24L record — W-L-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Jeonbuk Motors's form line: 25W 19D 26L from 70 games, 1.34 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Daegu FC on 1.26 PPG, Jeonbuk Motors on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Daegu FC have posted 1.40 PPG from 35 outings (11W 16D 8L).
On the road, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 10W 8D 17L from 35 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Daegu FC are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Jeonbuk Motors are on 1.24 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 70 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Current Season
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 21W 25D 24L in their last 70 games (1.26 PPG), while Jeonbuk Motors have gone 25W 19D 26L in their last 70 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Jeonbuk Motors away?
Daegu FC's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.40 PPG; Jeonbuk Motors away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Daegu FC or Jeonbuk Motors been keeping clean sheets recently?
Daegu FC have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Jeonbuk Motors in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 16 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Jeonbuk Motors have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 May 2025, when Jeonbuk Motors won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Daegu FC's record when hosting Jeonbuk Motors specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Daegu FC
1
Draws
6
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 3, Jeonbuk Motors have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2025, when Jeonbuk Motors 3-0 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Jeonbuk Motors are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 51%, Jeonbuk Motors 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Daegu FC) and 43% (Jeonbuk Motors).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Daegu FC have failed to score in 26% of games; Jeonbuk Motors in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play Jeonbuk Motors?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 34% of Jeonbuk Motors's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Daegu FC's recent games and 43% of Jeonbuk Motors's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors tend to score early?
Daegu FC have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Jeonbuk Motors in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Daegu FC edge out Jeonbuk Motors 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC beat Jeonbuk Motors 4-3 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 33, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.33 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.26 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Daegu FC beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jeonbuk Motors outscored their 1.26 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.95 / defence 0.92 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.14 / defence 1.00, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 38% | Draw 26% | Jeonbuk Motors 35%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 41%, Jeonbuk Motors 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daegu FC 1.26 PPG, Jeonbuk Motors 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daegu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Daegu FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.