Daegu FC 1-2 Incheon United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Incheon United at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daegu FC vs Incheon United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
DGB Daegu Bank Park plays host to Daegu FC versus Incheon United in K League 1, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Tuesday 5 April 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Daegu FC have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Daegu FC have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Incheon United's overall K League 1 record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Incheon United's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Daegu FC against 1.10 for Incheon United. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Daegu FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Incheon United in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Daegu FC half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Incheon United half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 53% versus Incheon United 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 45% | Incheon United 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 0.92 xG and Incheon United 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 1.036 / defence 0.973 | Incheon United attack 0.970 / defence 0.804. League average goals — home 1.104 / away 1.102. Data: 40 Daegu FC games / 40 Incheon United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 31% | Draw 32% | Incheon United 37%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 3.23 | Draw 3.12 | Incheon United 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Incheon United at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Incheon United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Daegu FC 60% | Incheon United 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Incheon United | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 Apr 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 31% | Draw 32% | Incheon United 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Daegu FC 0.92 / Incheon United 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 1.036 / def 0.973 | Incheon United attack 0.970 / def 0.804 | league avg home 1.104 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Incheon United (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Incheon United xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Incheon United kick off?
Daegu FC vs Incheon United kicked off at 11:30 on Tuesday 5 April 2022 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Incheon United?
Daegu FC 1 - 2 Incheon United.
Where is Daegu FC vs Incheon United being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Incheon United part of?
Daegu FC vs Incheon United is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Incheon United?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 31% chance of winning, Incheon United a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Incheon United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Incheon United?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Daegu FC and Incheon United will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Incheon United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Incheon United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Daegu FC and Incheon United in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Incheon United (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Daegu FC's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Incheon United's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. Flip it around — Incheon United's attack (0.97x) against Daegu FC's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Incheon United Win
31%
3.25
32%
3.10
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
1.96
1.04
Incheon United xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
11%
9.19
15%
6.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 14.6 | 7.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Incheon United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Incheon United expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Daegu FC and 1.04 for Incheon United, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Incheon United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Daegu FC come into this having played 38 games, going 15W 10D 13L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Incheon United sit at 1.24 PPG from 38 outings (12W 11D 15L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Daegu FC against 1.24 for Incheon United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Daegu FC's home form reads 8W 6D 5L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Incheon United have taken 1.05 points per game from 19 outings (5W 5D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Daegu FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Daegu FC are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Incheon United are on 1.00 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Current Season
Incheon United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and Incheon United in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 15W 10D 13L in their last 38 games (1.45 PPG), while Incheon United have gone 12W 11D 15L in their last 38 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Incheon United away?
Daegu FC's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.58 PPG; Incheon United away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Incheon United go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daegu FC have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Incheon United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Daegu FC
5
Draws
4
Incheon United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Incheon United?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 1, Incheon United have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Incheon United last play each other?
They last met on 24 November 2024, when Daegu FC 1-3 Incheon United.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Incheon United?
Incheon United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Daegu FC see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Incheon United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 53%, Incheon United 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Daegu FC) and 53% (Incheon United).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Daegu FC have failed to score in 26% of games; Incheon United in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Incheon United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play Incheon United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Daegu FC's games and 58% of Incheon United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Daegu FC vs Incheon United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Daegu FC's recent games and 53% of Incheon United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daegu FC and Incheon United tend to score early?
Daegu FC have had a goal before half-time in 42% of their recent matches, Incheon United in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Incheon United edge out Daegu FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Incheon United beat Daegu FC 1-2 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 8, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 0.92 xG and Incheon United 1.04 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Incheon United outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 1.04 / defence 0.97 against Incheon United attack 0.97 / defence 0.80, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 31% | Draw 32% | Incheon United 37%, with Incheon United to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 45%, Incheon United 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Incheon United's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daegu FC 1.45 PPG, Incheon United 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Incheon United win broke the near-deadlock. Incheon United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.