Daegu FC 2-2 FC Anyang – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daegu FC vs FC Anyang fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Relegation Group - 38 as Daegu FC welcome FC Anyang to DGB Daegu Bank Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 30 November 2025 at 05:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Daegu FC have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Daegu FC have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at DGB Daegu Bank Park this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Anyang stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Anyang's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Daegu FC) versus 1.80 (FC Anyang). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Daegu FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, FC Anyang in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Daegu FC, 2 for FC Anyang and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Jul 2025, ended 0–4 with FC Anyang winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Daegu FC trading profile (37 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
FC Anyang trading profile (37 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Daegu FC 70% and FC Anyang 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 65% | FC Anyang 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.46 xG and FC Anyang 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.989 / defence 1.154 | FC Anyang attack 0.818 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.226. Data: 66 Daegu FC games / 33 FC Anyang games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 43% | Draw 28% | FC Anyang 29%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | FC Anyang 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Daegu FC as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daegu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Daegu FC 70% | FC Anyang 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs FC Anyang | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Group - 38 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Nov 2025, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 43% | Draw 28% | FC Anyang 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Daegu FC 1.46 / FC Anyang 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 0.989 / def 1.154 | FC Anyang attack 0.818 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.16
FC Anyang xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs FC Anyang kick off?
Daegu FC vs FC Anyang kicked off at 05:00 on Sunday 30 November 2025 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs FC Anyang?
Daegu FC 2 - 2 FC Anyang.
Where is Daegu FC vs FC Anyang being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs FC Anyang part of?
Daegu FC vs FC Anyang is a Relegation Group - 38 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs FC Anyang?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 43% chance of winning, FC Anyang a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs FC Anyang?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Daegu FC and FC Anyang will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs FC Anyang have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and FC Anyang?
Record (3 meetings): Daegu FC 0W | Draws 1 | FC Anyang 2W.
What form are Daegu FC and FC Anyang in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-W-D. FC Anyang (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Daegu FC's attack rating (0.99) and FC Anyang's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Anyang's attack versus Daegu FC's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
43%
2.32
28%
3.59
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.61
1.16
FC Anyang xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
14%
7.40
7%
14.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.3 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs FC Anyang?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and FC Anyang expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Daegu FC and 1.16 for FC Anyang, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs FC Anyang?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Daegu FC's recent record stands at 7W 12D 18L from 37 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-D in the last five.
FC Anyang, meanwhile, have gone 14W 6D 17L across 37 games — 1.30 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Anyang by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Daegu FC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Daegu FC have managed 5W 5D 7L from 17 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Anyang's away record stands at 5W 2D 10L across 17 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Daegu FC are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; FC Anyang are on 1.27 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Daegu FC have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 37 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Current Season
FC Anyang
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and FC Anyang in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 7W 12D 18L in their last 37 games (0.89 PPG), while FC Anyang have gone 14W 6D 17L in their last 37 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or FC Anyang away?
Daegu FC's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.18 PPG; FC Anyang away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Daegu FC and FC Anyang runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Jul 2025, when FC Anyang won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Daegu FC's record when hosting FC Anyang specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Daegu FC
2
Draws
2
FC Anyang
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and FC Anyang?
From 4 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 0, FC Anyang have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and FC Anyang last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when Daegu FC 2-2 FC Anyang.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and FC Anyang?
FC Anyang have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
FC Anyang are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 65%, FC Anyang 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Daegu FC) and 59% (FC Anyang). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 6% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Daegu FC have failed to score in 29% of games; FC Anyang in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / FC Anyang away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play FC Anyang?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Daegu FC's games and 65% of FC Anyang's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Daegu FC vs FC Anyang usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Daegu FC's matches and 59% of FC Anyang's.
Do Daegu FC and FC Anyang tend to score early?
Daegu FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, FC Anyang in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Daegu FC and FC Anyang share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC and FC Anyang finished level at 2-2 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Relegation Group - 38, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.46 xG and FC Anyang 1.16 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. FC Anyang outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.15 against FC Anyang attack 0.82 / defence 0.98, drawn from 66/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 43% | Draw 28% | FC Anyang 29%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 65%, FC Anyang 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (37 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
FC Anyang's trading profile (37 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Anyang arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Anyang (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.