Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Gimcheon Sangmu FC (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bucheon FC 1995 face Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Relegation Group - 37 sees Gimcheon Sangmu FC travel to Bucheon Stadium to take on Bucheon FC 1995. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 November 2026, 07:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Bucheon FC 1995 have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.20 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
Bucheon FC 1995's home record at Bucheon Stadium: 2W 3D 5L from 10 K League 1 appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.20 — Bucheon FC 1995 are significantly better at Bucheon Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Gimcheon Sangmu FC's 0.90 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Bucheon FC 1995's 0.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Bucheon FC 1995, 2 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2026, ended 0–2 with Gimcheon Sangmu FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Bucheon FC 1995 in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bucheon FC 1995 44% versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bucheon FC 1995 47% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bucheon FC 1995 0.84 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.718 / defence 1.432 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.891 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.328. Bucheon FC 1995's attack strength of 0.718 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 33 Bucheon FC 1995 games / 66 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bucheon FC 1995 16% | Draw 29% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 55%. Fair-value odds: Bucheon FC 1995 6.25 | Draw 3.45 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Gimcheon Sangmu FC (55%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gimcheon Sangmu FC are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Bucheon FC 1995 50% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Group - 37 | Venue: Bucheon Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bucheon FC 1995 16% | Draw 29% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Bucheon FC 1995 0.84 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.718 / def 1.432 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.891 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Bucheon FC 1995 xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is scheduled to kick off at 07:30 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Bucheon Stadium.
Where is Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at Bucheon Stadium.
What competition is Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a Relegation Group - 37 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives Bucheon FC 1995 a 16% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 55% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Gimcheon Sangmu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Bucheon FC 1995 and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bucheon FC 1995 and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Record (3 meetings): Bucheon FC 1995 0W | Draws 1 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2W.
What form are Bucheon FC 1995 and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in?
Bucheon FC 1995 (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bucheon FC 1995's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.84. The same calculation in reverse, Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack versus Bucheon FC 1995's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.0%), 0-2 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gimcheon Sangmu FC Win
16%
6.40
29%
3.41
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.4%
Away win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Bucheon FC 1995 xG
Total xG
2.53
1.69
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
6.40
16%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
18%
5.44
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
3%
34.83
24%
4.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 13.5 | 11.4 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.3 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Bucheon FC 1995 and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Bucheon FC 1995 and 1.69 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bucheon FC 1995 come into this having played 36 games, going 8W 11D 17L for 0.97 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Gimcheon Sangmu FC sit at 1.06 PPG from 36 outings (6W 20D 10L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bucheon FC 1995 on 0.97 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Bucheon FC 1995's home form reads 3W 7D 8L across 18 games on their own ground, a 0.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have taken 1.22 points per game from 18 outings (4W 10D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Bucheon FC 1995 are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Gimcheon Sangmu FC are on 1.03 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 61%.
Last 36 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bucheon FC 1995
Current Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bucheon FC 1995 and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in coming into this match?
Bucheon FC 1995 have gone 8W 11D 17L in their last 36 games (0.97 PPG), while Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 6W 20D 10L in their last 36 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bucheon FC 1995 at home or Gimcheon Sangmu FC away?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bucheon FC 1995 at home: 0.89 PPG; Gimcheon Sangmu FC away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 19 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Bucheon FC 1995's record when hosting Gimcheon Sangmu FC specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Bucheon FC 1995
1
Draws
2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bucheon FC 1995 and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
From 3 meetings on record, Bucheon FC 1995 have won 0, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bucheon FC 1995 and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2026, when Bucheon FC 1995 0-2 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Who has won more matches between Bucheon FC 1995 and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bucheon FC 1995 see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bucheon FC 1995 44%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Bucheon FC 1995) and 28% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC).
On the defensive side: Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 33%; Bucheon FC 1995 have failed to score in 44% of games; Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bucheon FC 1995 home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bucheon FC 1995 play Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Bucheon FC 1995's recent matches and 56% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Bucheon FC 1995's recent games and 28% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.