Bucheon FC 1995 0-1 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeju United FC at 48%, yet in-form Bucheon FC 1995 provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bucheon FC 1995 and Jeju United FC meet at Bucheon Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 5 May 2026 at 05:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bucheon FC 1995's overall K League 1 record this term: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games (3.00 PPG). Last five: W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Bucheon FC 1995 have played only a handful of K League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jeju United FC (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Jeju United FC have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.60 in Bucheon FC 1995's favour (3.00 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Bucheon FC 1995 0W, Jeju United FC 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with Jeju United FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bucheon FC 1995 0.83 xG and Jeju United FC 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.816 / defence 1.089 | Jeju United FC attack 0.882 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.070 / away 1.377. Data: 11 Bucheon FC 1995 games / 44 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bucheon FC 1995 23% | Draw 29% | Jeju United FC 48%. Fair-value odds: Bucheon FC 1995 4.35 | Draw 3.45 | Jeju United FC 2.08. Jeju United FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jeju United FC at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bucheon FC 1995 (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jeju United FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Bucheon Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 May 2026, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bucheon FC 1995 23% | Draw 29% | Jeju United FC 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Bucheon FC 1995 0.83 / Jeju United FC 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.816 / def 1.089 | Jeju United FC attack 0.882 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.070 / away 1.377 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Bucheon FC 1995 xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Jeju United FC xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 05:00 on Tuesday 5 May 2026 at Bucheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC?
Bucheon FC 1995 0 - 1 Jeju United FC.
Where is Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Bucheon Stadium.
What competition is Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC part of?
Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Bucheon FC 1995 a 23% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 48% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Bucheon FC 1995 and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bucheon FC 1995 and Jeju United FC?
Record (1 meetings): Bucheon FC 1995 0W | Draws 0 | Jeju United FC 1W.
What form are Bucheon FC 1995 and Jeju United FC in?
Bucheon FC 1995 (all comps): 2W-0D-0L in 2 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W. Jeju United FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bucheon FC 1995's attack rating (0.82) and Jeju United FC's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 0.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jeju United FC's attack (0.88x) against Bucheon FC 1995's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 11/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
23%
4.34
29%
3.45
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Bucheon FC 1995 xG
Total xG
2.15
1.32
Jeju United FC xG
4.34
23%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
44%
2.29
Win to Nil
6%
16.28
21%
4.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 15.4 | 10.2 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.7 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Bucheon FC 1995 and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Bucheon FC 1995 and 1.32 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 2 outings, Bucheon FC 1995 have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 2W 0D 0L record — W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Bucheon FC 1995, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jeju United FC's form line: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W-W. It's still early in the season for Jeju United FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 3.00 PPG for Bucheon FC 1995 against 3.00 for Jeju United FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bucheon FC 1995 are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.50 scored and 0.00 conceded. Bucheon FC 1995's scoring rate against Jeju United FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Jeju United FC in 0%.
Defensively: Bucheon FC 1995 have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Jeju United FC in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bucheon FC 1995
Early Season
Jeju United FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bucheon FC 1995 and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Bucheon FC 1995 have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 games (3.00 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 (3.00 PPG).
Have Bucheon FC 1995 or Jeju United FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bucheon FC 1995 have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Jeju United FC in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since April 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 5 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Bucheon FC 1995
0
Draws
2
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bucheon FC 1995 and Jeju United FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Bucheon FC 1995 have won 0, Jeju United FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bucheon FC 1995 and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2026, when Bucheon FC 1995 0-1 Jeju United FC.
Who has won more matches between Bucheon FC 1995 and Jeju United FC?
Jeju United FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bucheon FC 1995 home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bucheon FC 1995 play Jeju United FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bucheon FC 1995's recent matches and 0% of Jeju United FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bucheon FC 1995's recent games and 0% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Jeju United FC edge out Bucheon FC 1995 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeju United FC beat Bucheon FC 1995 0-1 at Bucheon Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bucheon FC 1995 0.83 xG and Jeju United FC 1.32 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bucheon FC 1995 fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.82 / defence 1.09 against Jeju United FC attack 0.88 / defence 0.95, drawn from 11/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bucheon FC 1995 23% | Draw 29% | Jeju United FC 48%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bucheon FC 1995 50%, Jeju United FC 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bucheon FC 1995 3.00 PPG, Jeju United FC 3.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeju United FC win broke the near-deadlock. Bucheon FC 1995 managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.