NEOM vs Al-Ahli Jeddah – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates NEOM at 39%, yet in-form Al-Ahli Jeddah provide a compelling counter-argument — this NEOM vs Al-Ahli Jeddah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Ahli Jeddah make the trip to King Khalid Sports City to face NEOM in Pro League, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Thursday 10 December 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
NEOM have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. NEOM have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
NEOM at King Khalid Sports City this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's overall Pro League record this term: 7W 0D 3L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Al-Ahli Jeddah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Ahli Jeddah are 0.60 PPG clear of NEOM in recent Pro League fixtures (2.10 vs 1.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for NEOM, 2 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2026, ended 0–3 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
NEOM goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Al-Ahli Jeddah goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NEOM 60% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEOM 53% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEOM 1.40 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEOM attack 0.922 / defence 0.982 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.863 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.406. Data: 38 NEOM games / 38 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEOM 39% | Draw 31% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 30%. Fair-value odds: NEOM 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates NEOM as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Ahli Jeddah (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on NEOM if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: NEOM 60% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEOM vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: King Khalid Sports City • Kick-off: Thursday 10 Dec 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEOM 39% | Draw 31% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG NEOM 1.40 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: NEOM attack 0.922 / def 0.982 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.863 / def 1.071 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: NEOM (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
NEOM xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEOM vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
NEOM vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Thursday 10 December 2026 at King Khalid Sports City.
Where is NEOM vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at King Khalid Sports City.
What competition is NEOM vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
NEOM vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win NEOM vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives NEOM a 39% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making NEOM the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEOM vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both NEOM and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will NEOM vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEOM and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (2 meetings): NEOM 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2W.
What form are NEOM and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
NEOM (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from NEOM's attack rating (0.92) and Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack (0.86x) against NEOM's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NEOM Win
39%
2.54
31%
3.26
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
NEOM xG
Total xG
2.59
1.19
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
12%
8.36
7%
13.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.5 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEOM vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are NEOM and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for NEOM and 1.19 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for NEOM vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
NEOM's recent record stands at 15W 9D 14L from 38 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for NEOM, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ahli Jeddah, meanwhile, have gone 27W 6D 5L across 38 games — 2.29 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ahli Jeddah by 0.87 — a real, if not enormous, edge over NEOM heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, NEOM have managed 8W 4D 8L from 20 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record stands at 12W 3D 5L across 20 trips, a 1.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
NEOM are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 2.03 scored and 0.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NEOM have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEOM
Early Season
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEOM and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
NEOM have gone 15W 9D 14L in their last 38 games (1.42 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 27W 6D 5L in their last 38 (2.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEOM at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEOM at home: 1.40 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.95 PPG.
Have NEOM or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
NEOM have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
NEOM
0
Draws
2
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEOM and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 2 meetings on record, NEOM have won 0, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did NEOM and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when NEOM 0-3 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between NEOM and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
NEOM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Ahli Jeddah see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NEOM 60%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (NEOM) and 40% (Al-Ahli Jeddah).
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEOM home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEOM play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of NEOM's recent matches and 35% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NEOM vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of NEOM's recent games and 40% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NEOM and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
NEOM have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.