Damac 1-0 Al Taee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Damac at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Damac vs Al Taee fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Taee make the trip to Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium to face Damac in Pro League, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Friday 20 August 2021 at 17:10 UTC.
Current Form
Damac's overall Pro League record this term: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 4.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 4.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Damac have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Taee (all games): 0W 0D 1L across 1 Pro League outings this term — 0.00 points per game. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Al Taee have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.00 vs 0.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.48 xG and Al Taee 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.962 / defence 1.150 | Al Taee attack 0.724 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 0.898. Data: 1 Damac games / 1 Al Taee games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Damac 55% | Draw 26% | Al Taee 19%. Fair-value odds: Damac 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Al Taee 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Damac (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Damac at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al Taee | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 20 Aug 2021, 17:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 55% | Draw 26% | Al Taee 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 41% | xG Damac 1.48 / Al Taee 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.962 / def 1.150 | Al Taee attack 0.724 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.425 / away 0.898 • Poisson stance: Damac (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Damac xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Al Taee xG
41%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al Taee kick off?
Damac vs Al Taee kicked off at 17:10 on Friday 20 August 2021 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al Taee?
Damac 1 - 0 Al Taee.
Where is Damac vs Al Taee being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al Taee part of?
Damac vs Al Taee is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al Taee?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 55% chance of winning, Al Taee a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al Taee?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Damac and Al Taee will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al Taee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Taee?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Damac and Al Taee in?
Damac (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 4.00 | L5 L. Al Taee (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Damac's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Al Taee's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. Flip it around — Al Taee's attack (0.72x) against Damac's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
55%
1.83
26%
3.79
19%
5.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Damac xG
Total xG
2.23
0.75
Al Taee xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
5.30
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
26%
3.86
4%
23.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 11.9 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 8.8 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al Taee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Damac and Al Taee expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Damac and 0.75 for Al Taee, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al Taee?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 1 outings, Damac have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 1L record — L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Damac, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Taee's form line: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L. It's still early in the season for Al Taee, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.00 PPG for Damac against 0.00 for Al Taee. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Damac are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 4.00 conceded per game recently; Al Taee are on 0.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Damac have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Al Taee in 0%.
Last 1 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Early Season
Al Taee
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al Taee in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Al Taee have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Damac won 3-0 on 21 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Damac have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al Taee — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Damac
0
Draws
1
Al Taee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Taee?
From 6 meetings on record, Damac have won 5, Al Taee have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al Taee last play each other?
They last met on 21 December 2023, when Damac 3-0 Al Taee.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al Taee?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al Taee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al Taee?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Damac's recent matches and 0% of Al Taee's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Damac vs Al Taee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Damac's recent games and 0% of Al Taee's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al Taee tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al Taee in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Damac edge out Al Taee 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac beat Al Taee 1-0 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.48 xG and Al Taee 0.75 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against Al Taee attack 0.72 / defence 1.08, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Damac 55% | Draw 26% | Al Taee 19%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 100%, Al Taee 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Damac 0.00 PPG, Al Taee 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Damac win broke the near-deadlock. Damac conceded 0 against a 4.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.