Damac 1-1 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Damac vs Al Taawon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Damac and Al Taawon meet at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Monday 27 June 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Damac's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Damac at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Al Taawon have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 6D 1L. Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al Taawon's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Damac, 1.50 for Al Taawon — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Damac, 1 for Al Taawon and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Jan 2022, ended 0–3 with Al Taawon winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Damac — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Al Taawon — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Damac 52% and Al Taawon 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 45% | Al Taawon 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.22 xG and Al Taawon 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.979 / defence 1.375 | Al Taawon attack 0.926 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.074 / away 1.331. Data: 29 Damac games / 29 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 28% | Draw 24% | Al Taawon 48%. Fair-value odds: Damac 3.57 | Draw 4.17 | Al Taawon 2.08. Al Taawon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Taawon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Damac 50% | Al Taawon 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 27 Jun 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 28% | Draw 24% | Al Taawon 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Damac 1.22 / Al Taawon 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.979 / def 1.375 | Al Taawon attack 0.926 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.074 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Al Taawon xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al Taawon kick off?
Damac vs Al Taawon kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 27 June 2022 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al Taawon?
Damac 1 - 1 Al Taawon.
Where is Damac vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al Taawon part of?
Damac vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 28% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 48% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Damac and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Taawon?
Record (1 meetings): Damac 0W | Draws 0 | Al Taawon 1W.
What form are Damac and Al Taawon in?
Damac (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Al Taawon (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Damac's attack at 0.98x the league average against Al Taawon's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Taawon's attack (0.93x) against Damac's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.70.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
28%
3.63
24%
4.18
48%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Damac xG
Total xG
2.92
1.70
Al Taawon xG
3.63
28%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
2.06
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
18%
5.45
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
5%
19.75
14%
7.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 9.2 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.2 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Damac and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Damac and 1.70 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 29 outings, Damac have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 12W 7D 10L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Al Taawon's form line: 7W 12D 10L from 29 games, 1.14 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Damac against 1.14 for Al Taawon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Damac have posted 1.79 PPG from 14 outings (7W 4D 3L).
On the road, Al Taawon have gone 3W 6D 5L from 14 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Damac come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Damac are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.45 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon in 72%.
Last 29 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Current Season
Al Taawon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 12W 7D 10L in their last 29 games (1.48 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 7W 12D 10L in their last 29 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al Taawon away?
Damac's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.79 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Damac or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Damac have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 12 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Taawon won 6-1 on 19 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Damac have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Taawon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Damac
4
Draws
5
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Taawon?
From 10 meetings on record, Damac have won 1, Al Taawon have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2026, when Damac 2-1 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al Taawon?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 50%, Al Taawon 79% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Damac) and 64% (Al Taawon).
On the defensive side: Damac keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al Taawon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Damac's games and 79% of Al Taawon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Damac vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Damac's recent games and 64% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Damac and Al Taawon share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac and Al Taawon finished level at 1-1 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.22 xG and Al Taawon 1.70 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.98 / defence 1.38 against Al Taawon attack 0.93 / defence 1.16, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 28% | Draw 24% | Al Taawon 48%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 45%, Al Taawon 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Taawon's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Damac 1.48 PPG, Al Taawon 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.