Damac 1-0 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Al Shabab (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Damac face Al Shabab.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dhamak Club Stadium plays host to Damac versus Al Shabab in Pro League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Friday 4 October 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Damac (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Damac have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Damac's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Dhamak Club Stadium this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al Shabab's overall Pro League record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al Shabab have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Shabab away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al Shabab are 1.20 PPG clear of Damac in recent Pro League fixtures (1.80 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Damac have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Al Shabab in only 10%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
Al Shabab hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Feb 2024, ended 0–1 with Al Shabab winning.
It is worth noting that Al Shabab have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Damac goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Al Shabab goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 56% versus Al Shabab 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 46% | Al Shabab 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 0.98 xG and Al Shabab 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.959 / defence 0.925 | Al Shabab attack 0.946 / defence 0.705. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.262. Al Shabab's defence strength of 0.705 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 39 Damac games / 39 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 32% | Draw 30% | Al Shabab 38%. Fair-value odds: Damac 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Al Shabab 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Shabab as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Shabab if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Damac 30% | Al Shabab 10% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Dhamak Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 4 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 32% | Draw 30% | Al Shabab 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Damac 0.98 / Al Shabab 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.959 / def 0.925 | Al Shabab attack 0.946 / def 0.705 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Al Shabab xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al Shabab kick off?
Damac vs Al Shabab kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 4 October 2024 at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al Shabab?
Damac 1 - 0 Al Shabab.
Where is Damac vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al Shabab part of?
Damac vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 32% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Damac and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Shabab?
Record (6 meetings): Damac 0W | Draws 2 | Al Shabab 4W.
What form are Damac and Al Shabab in?
Damac (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Al Shabab (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Damac vs Al Shabab?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Damac's attack rating (0.96) and Al Shabab's defence rating (0.70), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Shabab's attack (0.95x) against Damac's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
32%
3.15
30%
3.33
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Damac xG
Total xG
2.08
1.10
Al Shabab xG
3.15
32%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
11%
9.51
14%
6.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 13.8 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Damac and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Damac and 1.10 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Damac come into this having played 39 games, going 11W 11D 17L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Damac, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Shabab sit at 1.44 PPG from 39 outings (16W 8D 15L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Shabab, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Damac against 1.44 for Al Shabab. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Damac's home form reads 7W 6D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Shabab have taken 1.21 points per game from 19 outings (6W 5D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
Damac are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.28 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Al Shabab in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Early Season
Al Shabab
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 11W 11D 17L in their last 39 games (1.13 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 16W 8D 15L in their last 39 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al Shabab away?
Damac's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.42 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Damac or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Damac have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Shabab won 1-4 on 31 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Damac have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Damac
3
Draws
6
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Shabab?
From 10 meetings on record, Damac have won 1, Al Shabab have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Damac 1-3 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al Shabab?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Al Shabab see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 53%, Al Shabab 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Damac) and 37% (Al Shabab).
On the defensive side: Al Shabab in 42%; Damac have failed to score in 32% of games; Al Shabab in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al Shabab?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Damac's recent matches and 32% of Al Shabab's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Damac vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Damac's recent games and 37% of Al Shabab's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Damac defy the odds to beat Al Shabab 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac beat Al Shabab 1-0 at Dhamak Club Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 0.98 xG and Al Shabab 1.10 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Shabab landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.96 / defence 0.93 against Al Shabab attack 0.95 / defence 0.70, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 32% | Draw 30% | Al Shabab 38%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Damac win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 46%, Al Shabab 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Shabab's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Damac 1.13 PPG, Al Shabab 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Damac win broke the near-deadlock. Damac (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.