Damac 1-1 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Damac vs Al-Ittihad FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium plays host to Damac versus Al-Ittihad FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Tuesday 11 October 2022 at 16:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Damac have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Damac have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Damac have posted 5W 2D 3L at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Ittihad FC's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al-Ittihad FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Ittihad FC are 0.50 PPG clear of Damac in recent Pro League fixtures (1.80 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Damac lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2022, ended 1–2 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Damac half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Al-Ittihad FC half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 56% versus Al-Ittihad FC 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 44% | Al-Ittihad FC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 0.99 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 1.114 / defence 0.984 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.164 / defence 0.737. League average goals — home 1.204 / away 1.002. Al-Ittihad FC's defence strength of 0.737 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 36 Damac games / 36 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 31% | Draw 30% | Al-Ittihad FC 39%. Fair-value odds: Damac 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Damac 60% | Al-Ittihad FC 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 11 Oct 2022, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 31% | Draw 30% | Al-Ittihad FC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Damac 0.99 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 1.114 / def 0.984 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.164 / def 0.737 | league avg home 1.204 / away 1.002 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Al-Ittihad FC xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Damac vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 16:15 on Tuesday 11 October 2022 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Damac 1 - 1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Damac vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Damac vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 31% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Damac and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (2 meetings): Damac 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Ittihad FC 1W.
What form are Damac and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Damac (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Damac's attack rating (1.11) and Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad FC's attack (1.16x) against Damac's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
31%
3.26
30%
3.28
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Damac xG
Total xG
2.14
1.15
Al-Ittihad FC xG
3.26
31%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
10%
10.27
14%
6.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 13.6 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Damac and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Damac and 1.15 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Damac's recent record stands at 15W 10D 11L from 36 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Damac, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ittihad FC, meanwhile, have gone 24W 7D 5L across 36 games — 2.19 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad FC by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Damac heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Damac have managed 9W 5D 3L from 17 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ittihad FC's away record stands at 11W 4D 2L across 17 trips, a 2.18 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Damac are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 1.97 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Early Season
Al-Ittihad FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 15W 10D 11L in their last 36 games (1.53 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 24W 7D 5L in their last 36 (2.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.88 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 2.18 PPG.
Have Damac or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Damac have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won 3-0 on 4 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Damac have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ittihad FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Damac
3
Draws
5
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Damac have won 2, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 53%, Al-Ittihad FC 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Damac) and 59% (Al-Ittihad FC).
On the defensive side: Damac keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Al-Ittihad FC in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al-Ittihad FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Damac's games and 59% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Damac vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Damac's recent games and 59% of Al-Ittihad FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Damac and Al-Ittihad FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 7, as Damac and Al-Ittihad FC drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 0.99 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.15 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 1.11 / defence 0.98 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.16 / defence 0.74, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 31% | Draw 30% | Al-Ittihad FC 39%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 44%, Al-Ittihad FC 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 1.53. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.