Damac 0-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Damac face Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Damac and Al-Hilal Saudi FC meet at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Friday 19 May 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Damac have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Damac have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L D L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Damac lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 Dec 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Damac half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Al-Hilal Saudi FC half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 54% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 48% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.17 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.871 / defence 1.046 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.141 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.244. Data: 56 Damac games / 56 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 30% | Draw 26% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 44%. Fair-value odds: Damac 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Damac 60% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 19 May 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 30% | Draw 26% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Damac 1.17 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.871 / def 1.046 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.141 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 19 May 2023 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Damac 0 - 1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 30% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Damac and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (3 meetings): Damac 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2W.
What form are Damac and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Damac (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Damac's attack at 0.87x the league average against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack (1.14x) against Damac's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
30%
3.35
26%
3.89
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Damac xG
Total xG
2.65
1.48
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
3.35
30%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
7%
14.77
14%
7.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.5 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.2 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Damac and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Damac and 1.48 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Damac's recent record stands at 20W 16D 20L from 56 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC, meanwhile, have gone 34W 15D 7L across 56 games — 2.09 PPG, with L-D-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Damac heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Damac have managed 11W 10D 6L from 27 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record stands at 15W 9D 3L across 27 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Damac are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 1.96 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 20W 16D 20L in their last 56 games (1.36 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 34W 15D 7L in their last 56 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.59 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Damac or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Damac have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Damac have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hilal Saudi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Damac
3
Draws
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Damac have won 0, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1-0 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 56%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Damac) and 48% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC).
On the defensive side: Damac keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Damac's recent matches and 48% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Damac's recent games and 48% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Hilal Saudi FC edge out Damac 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Damac 0-1 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.17 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.48 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Damac fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.87 / defence 1.05 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.14 / defence 0.91, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 30% | Draw 26% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 44%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 48%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.36. Form held, and they took the win. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.