Damac 3-0 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Damac at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Damac vs Al-Fayha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Damac and Al-Fayha meet at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Friday 15 May 2026 at 17:15 UTC.
Form
Damac (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Damac's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Al-Fayha's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al-Fayha's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Damac against 1.20 for Al-Fayha. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Damac lead 3W to 1W over the last 9 encounters, with 5 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Damac — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Al-Fayha — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 54% versus Al-Fayha 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 48% | Al-Fayha 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.32 xG and Al-Fayha 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.777 / defence 0.859 | Al-Fayha attack 0.842 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.435. Damac's attack strength of 0.777 is below the league average — the 1.32 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 66 Damac games / 66 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 42% | Draw 30% | Al-Fayha 28%. Fair-value odds: Damac 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Al-Fayha 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Damac as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Damac if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Damac 50% | Al-Fayha 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 15 May 2026, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 42% | Draw 30% | Al-Fayha 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Damac 1.32 / Al-Fayha 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.777 / def 0.859 | Al-Fayha attack 0.842 / def 1.139 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.435 • Poisson stance: Damac (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Al-Fayha xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Damac vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 17:15 on Friday 15 May 2026 at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al-Fayha?
Damac 3 - 0 Al-Fayha.
Where is Damac vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al-Fayha part of?
Damac vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 42% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Damac and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Fayha?
Record (9 meetings): Damac 3W | Draws 5 | Al-Fayha 1W.
What form are Damac and Al-Fayha in?
Damac (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Al-Fayha (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Damac's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Al-Fayha's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (0.84x) against Damac's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
42%
2.38
30%
3.35
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Damac xG
Total xG
2.36
1.04
Al-Fayha xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
27%
3.76
Win to Nil
15%
6.71
7%
13.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.9 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Damac and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Damac and 1.04 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Damac's recent record stands at 14W 19D 33L from 66 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Al-Fayha, meanwhile, have gone 18W 20D 28L across 66 games — 1.12 PPG, with D-L-D-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.92 PPG for Damac against 1.12 for Al-Fayha. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Damac have managed 9W 10D 14L from 33 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fayha's away record stands at 7W 8D 18L across 33 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Damac are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.03 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Current Season
Al-Fayha
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 14W 19D 33L in their last 66 games (0.92 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 18W 20D 28L in their last 66 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al-Fayha away?
Damac's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.12 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 15 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Damac won 3-0 on 15 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Damac have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Damac
5
Draws
1
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Fayha?
From 10 meetings on record, Damac have won 4, Al-Fayha have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Damac 3-0 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al-Fayha?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 54%, Al-Fayha 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Damac) and 58% (Al-Fayha).
On the defensive side: Damac have failed to score in 30% of games; Al-Fayha in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al-Fayha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Damac's recent matches and 46% of Al-Fayha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Damac vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Damac's recent games and 58% of Al-Fayha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Damac run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al-Fayha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac beat Al-Fayha 3-0 at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.32 xG and Al-Fayha 1.04 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Damac beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Fayha landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.78 / defence 0.86 against Al-Fayha attack 0.84 / defence 1.14, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 42% | Draw 30% | Al-Fayha 28%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 48%, Al-Fayha 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Damac 0.92 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Damac win broke the near-deadlock. Damac (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.