Damac 1-1 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Damac at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Damac vs Al-Fateh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 7 as Damac welcome Al-Fateh to Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 30 October 2025 at 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Damac have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Damac have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, Damac have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Al-Fateh — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fateh away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Damac) versus 1.00 (Al-Fateh). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Damac, 3 for Al-Fateh and 4 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2025, ended 0–1 with Al-Fateh winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Damac in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Damac 58% and Al-Fateh 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 55% | Al-Fateh 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.71 xG and Al-Fateh 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.838 / defence 1.143 | Al-Fateh attack 0.899 / defence 1.365. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.456. Al-Fateh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.365 — this is suppressing Damac's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Damac games / 40 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 43% | Draw 24% | Al-Fateh 33%. Fair-value odds: Damac 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Fateh 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Damac as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Damac offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Damac 50% | Al-Fateh 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 30 Oct 2025, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 43% | Draw 24% | Al-Fateh 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Damac 1.71 / Al-Fateh 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.838 / def 1.143 | Al-Fateh attack 0.899 / def 1.365 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.456 • Poisson stance: Damac (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Al-Fateh xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Damac vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 15:15 on Thursday 30 October 2025 at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al-Fateh?
Damac 1 - 1 Al-Fateh.
Where is Damac vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al-Fateh part of?
Damac vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 43% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Damac and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Fateh?
Record (8 meetings): Damac 1W | Draws 4 | Al-Fateh 3W.
What form are Damac and Al-Fateh in?
Damac (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Al-Fateh (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Damac's attack rating (0.84) and Al-Fateh's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Damac's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
43%
2.34
24%
4.19
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Damac xG
Total xG
3.21
1.50
Al-Fateh xG
2.34
43%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
22%
4.46
18%
5.54
Win to Nil
10%
10.46
6%
16.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.4 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Damac and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Damac and 1.50 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Damac's recent record stands at 9W 10D 21L from 40 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Damac, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Fateh, meanwhile, have gone 12W 7D 21L across 40 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fateh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Damac on 0.92 PPG, Al-Fateh on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Damac have managed 6W 5D 9L from 20 games — 1.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fateh's away record stands at 4W 4D 12L across 20 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Damac are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.32 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh in 68%.
Last 40 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Early Season
Al-Fateh
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 9W 10D 21L in their last 40 games (0.92 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 12W 7D 21L in their last 40 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al-Fateh away?
Damac's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.15 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 26 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 May 2022, when Al-Fateh won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Damac's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Damac
6
Draws
3
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Damac have won 1, Al-Fateh have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2026, when Al-Fateh 1-1 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al-Fateh?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 60%, Al-Fateh 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Damac and 60% for Al-Fateh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Damac's games and 55% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Damac vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Damac's matches and 60% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Damac and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Damac and Al-Fateh share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, Regular Season - 7, as Damac and Al-Fateh drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.71 xG and Al-Fateh 1.50 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.84 / defence 1.14 against Al-Fateh attack 0.90 / defence 1.36, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 43% | Draw 24% | Al-Fateh 33%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 55%, Al-Fateh 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Damac 0.92 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.