Al Wehda Club 2-0 Al Baten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Wehda Club at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Wehda Club vs Al Baten fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 7 as Al Wehda Club welcome Al Baten to King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 10 October 2022 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Wehda Club stand at 1W 1D 4L from 6 Pro League matches — 0.67 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 0.33 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 17% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Al Wehda Club have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Baten — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al Baten have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Baten's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Wehda Club 0.67 PPG, Al Baten 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Al Wehda Club's 17% rate and Al Baten's 30% (using overall form) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Trading Patterns
Al Wehda Club in-play and half-time data (6 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Al Baten in-play and half-time data (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 83% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al Wehda Club 17% | Al Baten 17%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wehda Club 17% | Al Baten 83%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wehda Club 1.31 xG and Al Baten 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wehda Club attack 0.850 / defence 1.038 | Al Baten attack 0.714 / defence 1.283. League average goals — home 1.198 / away 1.020. Al Baten bring a strong defensive rating of 1.283 — this is suppressing Al Wehda Club's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Al Wehda Club games / 36 Al Baten games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 50% | Draw 29% | Al Baten 22%. Fair-value odds: Al Wehda Club 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Al Baten 4.55. Al Wehda Club hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Wehda Club at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Wehda Club offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al Wehda Club 17% | Al Baten 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wehda Club vs Al Baten | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 10 Oct 2022, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 50% | Draw 29% | Al Baten 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 39% | xG Al Wehda Club 1.31 / Al Baten 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wehda Club attack 0.850 / def 1.038 | Al Baten attack 0.714 / def 1.283 | league avg home 1.198 / away 1.020 • Poisson stance: Al Wehda Club (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Al Wehda Club xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Al Baten xG
39%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wehda Club vs Al Baten kick off?
Al Wehda Club vs Al Baten kicked off at 18:30 on Monday 10 October 2022 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wehda Club vs Al Baten?
Al Wehda Club 2 - 0 Al Baten.
Where is Al Wehda Club vs Al Baten being played?
The match is being played at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al Wehda Club vs Al Baten part of?
Al Wehda Club vs Al Baten is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Wehda Club vs Al Baten?
Our statistical model gives Al Wehda Club a 50% chance of winning, Al Baten a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al Wehda Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wehda Club vs Al Baten?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Al Wehda Club and Al Baten will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wehda Club vs Al Baten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al Baten?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al Baten in?
Al Wehda Club (all comps): 1W-1D-4L in 6 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Al Baten (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Wehda Club's attack rating (0.85) and Al Baten's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Baten's attack versus Al Wehda Club's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wehda Club Win
50%
2.01
29%
3.48
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Al Wehda Club xG
Total xG
2.06
0.76
Al Baten xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
23%
4.29
6%
17.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 12.6 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wehda Club vs Al Baten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Al Wehda Club and Al Baten expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Al Wehda Club and 0.76 for Al Baten, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wehda Club vs Al Baten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 6 outings, Al Wehda Club have picked up 0.67 PPG on a 1W 1D 4L record — L-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Baten's form line: 0W 1D 5L from 6 games, 0.17 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Al Baten, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al Wehda Club are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Baten.
The Goals Picture
Al Wehda Club are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Al Baten are on 0.33 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Wehda Club have seen both teams score in 17% of their recent games; Al Baten in 17%.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wehda Club
Early Season
Al Baten
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al Baten in coming into this match?
Al Wehda Club have gone 1W 1D 4L in their last 6 games (0.67 PPG), while Al Baten have gone 0W 1D 5L in their last 6 (0.17 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Wehda Club and Al Baten runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Al Wehda Club
0
Draws
1
Al Baten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al Baten?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Wehda Club have won 1, Al Baten have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Wehda Club and Al Baten last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2023, when Al Baten 2-0 Al Wehda Club.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Wehda Club see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Al Baten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al Wehda Club 17% BTTS, Al Baten 17%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 17% (Al Wehda Club) and 83% (Al Baten).
On the defensive side: Al Wehda Club have failed to score in 67% of games; Al Baten in 83%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wehda Club home games / Al Baten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wehda Club play Al Baten?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Al Wehda Club's recent matches and 17% of Al Baten's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Wehda Club vs Al Baten usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Al Wehda Club's recent games and 83% of Al Baten's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Wehda Club and Al Baten tend to score early?
Al Wehda Club have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Al Baten in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Wehda Club cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al Baten.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wehda Club beat Al Baten 2-0 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wehda Club 1.31 xG and Al Baten 0.76 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wehda Club attack 0.85 / defence 1.04 against Al Baten attack 0.71 / defence 1.28, drawn from 6/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wehda Club 50% | Draw 29% | Al Baten 22%, with Al Wehda Club to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wehda Club 17%, Al Baten 83%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 17%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Baten's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 83% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wehda Club arrived the stronger side — 0.67 PPG against 0.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Wehda Club scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Al Baten conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.