Al Taee 0-0 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al Shabab (46%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al Taee face Al Shabab.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Shabab make the trip to Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium to face Al Taee in Pro League (matchday 27). The match kicks off on Saturday 6 April 2024 at 21:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Al Taee have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Al Taee's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Al Taee are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Al Shabab's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Al Shabab away from home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al Shabab are 0.90 PPG clear of Al Taee over their recent games (1.40 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Al Shabab have the stronger record — 4 wins to Al Taee's 0, with 1 draw.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 21 Oct 2023, ended Al Taee 0–2 Al Shabab — a Al Shabab win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Al Shabab have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Al Taee — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Al Shabab — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taee 52% versus Al Shabab 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taee 59% | Al Shabab 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al Taee surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Al Shabab have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taee 1.10 xG and Al Shabab 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taee attack 0.992 / defence 1.254 | Al Shabab attack 0.807 / defence 0.797. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.498. Al Shabab bring a tight defence (rating 0.797, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Al Taee's projected output down. Al Taee's defence rating of 1.254 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Shabab's projected output up. Data: built from Al Taee's last 56 games and Al Shabab's last 56.
Result probabilities: Al Taee 27% | Draw 27% | Al Shabab 46%. Fair-value odds: Al Taee 3.70 | Draw 3.76 | Al Shabab 2.16. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Shabab are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Shabab if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Al Taee's last 10 home games and Al Shabab's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches point the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Taee 80% (last 10 home games) | Al Shabab 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taee vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, matchday 27 | Venue: Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taee 27% | Draw 27% | Al Shabab 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Al Taee 1.10 / Al Shabab 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taee attack 0.992 / def 1.254 | Al Shabab attack 0.807 / def 0.797 | league avg home 1.392 / away 1.498 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Al Taee xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Al Shabab xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Taee vs Al Shabab FAQs
What time does Al Taee vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al Taee vs Al Shabab kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taee vs Al Shabab?
Al Taee 0 - 0 Al Shabab.
Where is Al Taee vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What competition is Al Taee vs Al Shabab part of?
Al Taee vs Al Shabab is a Pro League fixture (matchday 27) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taee vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al Taee a 27% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taee vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al Taee and Al Shabab will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Taee vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al Taee's attack rating (0.99) and Al Shabab's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Shabab's attack (0.81x) against Al Taee's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from Al Taee's last 56 games and Al Shabab's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.5%), 1-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
27%
3.70
27%
3.76
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Al Taee xG
Total xG
2.62
1.52
Al Shabab xG
3.70
27%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
22%
4.56
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
6%
16.86
15%
6.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 11.1 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Taee vs Al Shabab Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taee vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Al Taee and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Al Taee and 1.52 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taee vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, Al Taee have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 16W 8D 32L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Al Shabab's form line: 25W 12D 19L from 56 games, 1.55 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Al Shabab are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Taee.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al Taee have posted 1.39 PPG from their last 28 home games (12W 3D 13L).
On the road, Al Shabab have gone 10W 7D 11L from their last 28 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Taee are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.57 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Al Shabab in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taee
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
Al Taee (Home) vs Al Shabab (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Taee
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Al Taee vs Al Shabab Form FAQs
What form are Al Taee and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al Taee have gone 16W 8D 32L in their last 56 games (1.00 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 25W 12D 19L in their last 56 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taee at home or Al Shabab away?
Al Taee's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taee at home: 1.39 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Al Taee or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taee have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Shabab won Al Shabab 4-0 Al Taee on 8 Sep 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taee have gone 0W 2D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al Taee
2
Draws
4
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Taee vs Al Shabab H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al Shabab?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Taee have won 0, Al Shabab have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Taee and Al Shabab last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 April 2024: Al Taee 0-0 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al Taee and Al Shabab?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taee 54%, Al Shabab 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Al Taee and 61% for Al Shabab. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Taee keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taee home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Taee vs Al Shabab Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Taee and Al Shabab matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Al Taee's games and 61% of Al Shabab's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al Taee and Al Shabab matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Al Taee's matches and 61% of Al Shabab's.
Do Al Taee and Al Shabab matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Al Taee's recent matches and 79% of Al Shabab's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al Taee's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium, Regular Season - 27, as Al Taee and Al Shabab drew 0-0 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taee 1.10 xG and Al Shabab 1.52 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al Taee fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Al Shabab landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taee attack 0.99 / defence 1.25 against Al Shabab attack 0.81 / defence 0.80, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taee 27% | Draw 27% | Al Shabab 46%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taee 59%, Al Shabab 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taee's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Shabab's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Taee (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.