Al Taee 3-0 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taee at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Taee vs Al-Hazm encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Taee host Al-Hazm at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 27 June 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Taee have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al Taee at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Hazm — All Games: 1W 0D 9L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season.
On the road, Al-Hazm have gone 0W 1D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
On current form, Al Taee have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al Taee have won 1, Al-Hazm 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 31 Dec 2021, ended 1–0 with Al Taee winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Al Taee in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Al-Hazm in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taee 48% versus Al-Hazm 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taee 55% | Al-Hazm 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taee 1.76 xG and Al-Hazm 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taee attack 1.043 / defence 1.100 | Al-Hazm attack 0.666 / defence 1.575. League average goals — home 1.074 / away 1.331. Al-Hazm bring a strong defensive rating of 1.575 — this is suppressing Al Taee's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Al Taee games / 29 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taee 56% | Draw 23% | Al-Hazm 21%. Fair-value odds: Al Taee 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Hazm 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Al Taee (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Taee at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Al Taee 70% | Al-Hazm 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taee vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 27 Jun 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taee 56% | Draw 23% | Al-Hazm 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 52% | xG Al Taee 1.76 / Al-Hazm 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taee attack 1.043 / def 1.100 | Al-Hazm attack 0.666 / def 1.575 | league avg home 1.074 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Al Taee (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Al Taee xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Al-Hazm xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taee vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al Taee vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 27 June 2022 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taee vs Al-Hazm?
Al Taee 3 - 0 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al Taee vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What competition is Al Taee vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al Taee vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taee vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al Taee a 56% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al Taee the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taee vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al Taee and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taee vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al-Hazm?
Record (1 meetings): Al Taee 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Hazm 0W.
What form are Al Taee and Al-Hazm in?
Al Taee (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Al-Hazm (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Taee's attack at 1.04x the league average against Al-Hazm's defence at 1.57x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hazm's attack versus Al Taee's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taee Win
56%
1.79
23%
4.28
21%
4.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Al Taee xG
Total xG
2.74
0.97
Al-Hazm xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
4.83
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
17%
5.83
Win to Nil
21%
4.74
4%
28.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.1 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taee vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Al Taee and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Al Taee and 0.97 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taee vs Al-Hazm?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Taee come into this having played 29 games, going 10W 4D 15L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L.
On the other side, Al-Hazm sit at 0.59 PPG from 29 outings (4W 5D 20L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five.
Al Taee carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Al-Hazm — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al Taee's home form reads 6W 3D 5L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Hazm have taken 0.29 points per game from 14 outings (1W 1D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taee come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Taee are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 0.79 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taee
Current Season
Al-Hazm
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taee and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al Taee have gone 10W 4D 15L in their last 29 games (1.17 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 4W 5D 20L in their last 29 (0.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taee at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al Taee's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taee at home: 1.50 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 0.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Jun 2022, when Al Taee won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Taee's record when hosting Al-Hazm specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Al Taee
1
Draws
0
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al-Hazm?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Taee have won 3, Al-Hazm have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Taee and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2024, when Al Taee 1-0 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al Taee and Al-Hazm?
Al Taee have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Al-Hazm see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taee 71%, Al-Hazm 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Al Taee) and 36% (Al-Hazm).
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taee home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taee play Al-Hazm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of Al Taee's recent matches and 29% of Al-Hazm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taee vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Al Taee's recent games and 36% of Al-Hazm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taee and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al Taee have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Taee run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al-Hazm.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taee beat Al-Hazm 3-0 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taee 1.76 xG and Al-Hazm 0.97 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al Taee beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Hazm landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taee attack 1.04 / defence 1.10 against Al-Hazm attack 0.67 / defence 1.57, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taee 56% | Draw 23% | Al-Hazm 21%, with Al Taee to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taee 55%, Al-Hazm 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taee's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Hazm's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 52% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taee arrived the stronger side — 1.17 PPG against 0.59. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Taee (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.