Al Taee 1-0 Abha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taee at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Taee vs Abha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 24 as Al Taee welcome Abha to Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 27 April 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Taee have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Taee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Taee have posted 4W 1D 5L at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Abha stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Abha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Abha have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Al Taee) versus 0.80 (Abha). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
Abha have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Al Taee's 0 victories.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2022, ended 1–2 with Abha winning.
It is worth noting that Abha have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Al Taee in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Abha in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taee 49% versus Abha 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taee 60% | Abha 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taee 1.74 xG and Abha 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taee attack 1.053 / defence 1.102 | Abha attack 0.840 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.302. Data: 53 Al Taee games / 53 Abha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taee 49% | Draw 25% | Abha 26%. Fair-value odds: Al Taee 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Abha 3.85. Al Taee hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taee are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taee offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Al Taee 50% | Abha 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taee vs Abha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 27 Apr 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taee 49% | Draw 25% | Abha 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Al Taee 1.74 / Abha 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taee attack 1.053 / def 1.102 | Abha attack 0.840 / def 1.163 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Al Taee (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Al Taee xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Abha xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taee vs Abha kick off?
Al Taee vs Abha kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 27 April 2023 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taee vs Abha?
Al Taee 1 - 0 Abha.
Where is Al Taee vs Abha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What competition is Al Taee vs Abha part of?
Al Taee vs Abha is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taee vs Abha?
Our statistical model gives Al Taee a 49% chance of winning, Abha a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Taee the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taee vs Abha?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al Taee and Abha will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taee vs Abha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Abha?
Record (3 meetings): Al Taee 0W | Draws 0 | Abha 3W.
What form are Al Taee and Abha in?
Al Taee (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-D-D. Abha (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Taee's attack rating (1.05) and Abha's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Abha's attack versus Al Taee's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taee Win
49%
2.03
25%
4.03
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Al Taee xG
Total xG
2.95
1.21
Abha xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
17%
5.71
Win to Nil
15%
6.77
5%
22.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.0 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taee vs Abha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Al Taee and Abha expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Al Taee and 1.21 for Abha, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taee vs Abha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Taee come into this having played 53 games, going 19W 8D 26L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-D. The sample for Al Taee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Abha sit at 1.17 PPG from 53 outings (17W 11D 25L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Abha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Taee on 1.23 PPG, Abha on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al Taee's home form reads 12W 4D 10L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Abha have taken 0.69 points per game from 26 outings (5W 3D 18L). That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Abha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taee come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Taee are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Abha are on 1.06 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taee
Blended
Abha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taee and Abha in coming into this match?
Al Taee have gone 19W 8D 26L in their last 53 games (1.23 PPG), while Abha have gone 17W 11D 25L in their last 53 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taee at home or Abha away?
Al Taee's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taee at home: 1.54 PPG; Abha away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Taee and Abha runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Taee's record when hosting Abha specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al Taee
0
Draws
4
Abha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Abha?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Taee have won 2, Abha have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Taee and Abha last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2024, when Abha 2-0 Al Taee.
Who has won more matches between Al Taee and Abha?
Abha have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taee 58%, Abha 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Al Taee) and 50% (Abha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Taee keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Abha in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taee home games / Abha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taee play Abha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Al Taee's recent matches and 50% of Abha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taee vs Abha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Al Taee's matches and 50% of Abha's.
Do Al Taee and Abha tend to score early?
Al Taee have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Abha in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Taee edge out Abha 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taee beat Abha 1-0 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taee 1.74 xG and Abha 1.21 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Abha landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taee attack 1.05 / defence 1.10 against Abha attack 0.84 / defence 1.16, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taee 49% | Draw 25% | Abha 26%, with Al Taee to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taee 60%, Abha 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taee's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Abha's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Taee 1.23 PPG, Abha 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Taee win broke the near-deadlock. Al Taee (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Abha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.