Al Taawon 1-0 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 2 as Al Taawon welcome Al-Nassr to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 3 September 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Taawon have gone 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al Taawon have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Taawon's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Nassr — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Nassr have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Nassr away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Nassr — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al Taawon, 2 for Al-Nassr and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Jan 2022, ended 0–1 with Al-Nassr winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al Taawon trading profile (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Al-Nassr trading profile (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Taawon 71% and Al-Nassr 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 52% | Al-Nassr 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.10 xG and Al-Nassr 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.999 / defence 0.990 | Al-Nassr attack 1.185 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.122 / away 1.325. Data: 31 Al Taawon games / 31 Al-Nassr games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 27% | Draw 25% | Al-Nassr 48%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 3.70 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Nassr 2.08. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al Taawon 60% | Al-Nassr 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Sep 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 27% | Draw 25% | Al-Nassr 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Al Taawon 1.10 / Al-Nassr 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 0.999 / def 0.990 | Al-Nassr attack 1.185 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.122 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Al-Nassr xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 3 September 2022 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr?
Al Taawon 1 - 0 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 27% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 48% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Nassr?
Record (2 meetings): Al Taawon 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Nassr 2W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Nassr in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Al-Nassr (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Taawon's attack at 1.00x the league average against Al-Nassr's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Al Taawon's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
27%
3.71
25%
3.96
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.66
1.55
Al-Nassr xG
3.71
27%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
6%
17.58
16%
6.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.9 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.6 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Al Taawon and 1.55 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 31 outings, Al Taawon have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 8W 13D 10L record — W-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al Taawon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Nassr's form line: 20W 4D 7L from 31 games, 2.06 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Nassr, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Nassr are the form team by 0.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Taawon.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al Taawon have posted 1.20 PPG from 15 outings (4W 6D 5L).
On the road, Al-Nassr have gone 9W 2D 4L from 15 away games — 1.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Taawon are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 1.90 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 31 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Early Season
Al-Nassr
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 8W 13D 10L in their last 31 games (1.19 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 20W 4D 7L in their last 31 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.20 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 1.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Nassr have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2025, when Al-Nassr won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Taawon's record when hosting Al-Nassr specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al Taawon
2
Draws
6
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Nassr?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 2, Al-Nassr have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when Al-Nassr 1-0 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 67%, Al-Nassr 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Al Taawon) and 60% (Al-Nassr).
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al-Nassr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al Taawon's games and 53% of Al-Nassr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Al Taawon's recent games and 60% of Al-Nassr's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Taawon defy the odds to beat Al-Nassr 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Al-Nassr 1-0 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.10 xG and Al-Nassr 1.55 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Nassr landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 1.00 / defence 0.99 against Al-Nassr attack 1.19 / defence 0.98, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 27% | Draw 25% | Al-Nassr 48%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Al Taawon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 52%, Al-Nassr 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.19. Form was overturned, with Al Taawon winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Taawon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.