Al Taawon vs Al Kholood – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Kholood at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Taawon vs Al Kholood encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Taawon host Al Kholood at Al Taawon Arena in Pro League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 11 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Taawon — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taawon's home record at Al Taawon Arena: 0W 5D 5L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Kholood have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.50. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Kholood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Kholood's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al Kholood — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al Taawon, 2 for Al Kholood and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2026, ended 2–3 with Al Kholood winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al Taawon in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Al Kholood in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 60% versus Al Kholood 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 49% | Al Kholood 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.31 xG and Al Kholood 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.626 / defence 0.880 | Al Kholood attack 1.041 / defence 1.395. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.476. Al Taawon's attack strength of 0.626 is below the league average — the 1.31 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al Kholood bring a strong defensive rating of 1.395 — this is suppressing Al Taawon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Al Taawon games / 45 Al Kholood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 34% | Draw 31% | Al Kholood 35%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | Al Kholood 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Kholood are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Kholood offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Al Taawon 40% | Al Kholood 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al Kholood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Al Taawon Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 11 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 34% | Draw 31% | Al Kholood 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG Al Taawon 1.31 / Al Kholood 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 0.626 / def 0.880 | Al Kholood attack 1.041 / def 1.395 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.476 • Poisson stance: Al Kholood (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Al Kholood xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al Kholood kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al Kholood is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Thursday 11 February 2027 at Al Taawon Arena.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al Kholood being played?
The match is being played at Al Taawon Arena.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al Kholood part of?
Al Taawon vs Al Kholood is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al Kholood?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 34% chance of winning, Al Kholood a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Al Kholood the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al Kholood?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al Taawon and Al Kholood will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al Kholood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al Kholood?
Record (5 meetings): Al Taawon 2W | Draws 1 | Al Kholood 2W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al Kholood in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Al Kholood (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al Taawon's attack at 0.63x the league average against Al Kholood's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Kholood's attack versus Al Taawon's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Kholood Win
34%
2.97
31%
3.25
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.67
1.35
Al Kholood xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
9%
11.47
10%
10.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.3 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al Kholood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al Kholood expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Al Taawon and 1.35 for Al Kholood, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al Kholood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, Al Taawon have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 15W 13D 17L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Kholood's form line: 12W 9D 24L from 45 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Al Kholood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Taawon on 1.29 PPG, Al Kholood on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Taawon have posted 1.36 PPG from 22 outings (7W 9D 6L).
On the road, Al Kholood have gone 6W 5D 11L from 22 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Al Taawon are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Al Kholood are on 1.24 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al Kholood
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al Kholood in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 15W 13D 17L in their last 45 games (1.29 PPG), while Al Kholood have gone 12W 9D 24L in their last 45 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al Kholood away?
Al Taawon's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.36 PPG; Al Kholood away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Taawon and Al Kholood runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Kholood go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Al Taawon's record when hosting Al Kholood specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Al Taawon
1
Draws
2
Al Kholood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al Kholood?
From 5 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 2, Al Kholood have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al Kholood last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Al Kholood 3-2 Al Taawon.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Taawon see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 54%, Al Kholood 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Al Taawon) and 64% (Al Kholood).
On the defensive side: Al Taawon keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Al Taawon have failed to score in 27% of games; Al Kholood in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al Kholood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al Kholood?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Al Taawon's recent matches and 54% of Al Kholood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taawon vs Al Kholood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Al Taawon's recent games and 64% of Al Kholood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Al Kholood tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Al Kholood in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.