Al Shabab 0-1 Al Wehda Club – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Shabab at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Shabab vs Al Wehda Club encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 27 as Al Shabab welcome Al Wehda Club to Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 18 May 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Shabab — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Shabab's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Wehda Club have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Wehda Club have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Al Shabab carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al Shabab, 1 for Al Wehda Club and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Jan 2023, ended 1–2 with Al Wehda Club winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al Shabab in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Al Wehda Club in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 54% versus Al Wehda Club 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 65% | Al Wehda Club 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.80 xG and Al Wehda Club 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.149 / defence 0.719 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.766 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.495 / away 1.239. Al Shabab's defence rating of 0.719 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Al Shabab games / 26 Al Wehda Club games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 64% | Draw 23% | Al Wehda Club 13%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 1.56 | Draw 4.35 | Al Wehda Club 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Al Shabab (64%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Shabab are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 40% | Al Wehda Club 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al Wehda Club | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 18 May 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 64% | Draw 23% | Al Wehda Club 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 41% | xG Al Shabab 1.80 / Al Wehda Club 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.149 / def 0.719 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.766 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.495 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Al Wehda Club xG
41%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al Wehda Club kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al Wehda Club kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 18 May 2023 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al Wehda Club?
Al Shabab 0 - 1 Al Wehda Club.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al Wehda Club being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al Wehda Club part of?
Al Shabab vs Al Wehda Club is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al Wehda Club?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 64% chance of winning, Al Wehda Club a 13% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al Wehda Club?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Al Shabab and Al Wehda Club will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al Wehda Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al Wehda Club?
Record (1 meetings): Al Shabab 0W | Draws 0 | Al Wehda Club 1W.
What form are Al Shabab and Al Wehda Club in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Al Wehda Club (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al Shabab's attack at 1.15x the league average against Al Wehda Club's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Wehda Club's attack versus Al Shabab's defence, projects 0.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.5%), 1-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
64%
1.56
23%
4.43
13%
7.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
2.48
0.68
Al Wehda Club xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
7.42
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
51%
1.98
17%
6.03
Win to Nil
32%
3.10
2%
44.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 10.3 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.5 | 9.2 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al Wehda Club?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al Wehda Club expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Al Shabab and 0.68 for Al Wehda Club, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al Wehda Club?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Shabab's recent record stands at 16W 5D 5L from 26 games, a 2.04 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Wehda Club, meanwhile, have gone 6W 8D 12L across 26 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Al Wehda Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Shabab by 1.04 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Wehda Club heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al Shabab have managed 10W 2D 1L from 13 games — 2.46 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.04 PPG overall — Al Shabab are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al Wehda Club's away record stands at 2W 3D 8L across 13 trips, a 0.69 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Shabab come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Shabab are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Al Wehda Club are on 0.85 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Blended
Al Wehda Club
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al Wehda Club in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 16W 5D 5L in their last 26 games (2.04 PPG), while Al Wehda Club have gone 6W 8D 12L in their last 26 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al Wehda Club away?
Al Shabab's home record (2.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 2.46 PPG; Al Wehda Club away: 0.69 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al Wehda Club been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Al Wehda Club in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Shabab and Al Wehda Club runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al Shabab have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Al Shabab's record when hosting Al Wehda Club specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Al Shabab
0
Draws
3
Al Wehda Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al Wehda Club?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 3, Al Wehda Club have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al Wehda Club last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2025, when Al Wehda Club 1-3 Al Shabab.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 69% of the time.
Al Wehda Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al Shabab 31% BTTS, Al Wehda Club 38%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Al Shabab) and 31% (Al Wehda Club).
On the defensive side: Al Shabab keep a clean sheet in 69% of their matches; Al Wehda Club in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al Wehda Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al Wehda Club?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Al Shabab's recent matches and 38% of Al Wehda Club's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Shabab vs Al Wehda Club usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Al Shabab's recent games and 31% of Al Wehda Club's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Shabab and Al Wehda Club tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Al Wehda Club in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Wehda Club defy the odds to beat Al Shabab 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wehda Club beat Al Shabab 0-1 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.80 xG and Al Wehda Club 0.68 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Shabab fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.15 / defence 0.72 against Al Wehda Club attack 0.77 / defence 1.05, drawn from 56/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 64% | Draw 23% | Al Wehda Club 13%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Al Wehda Club win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 65%, Al Wehda Club 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Al Wehda Club winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.15 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.