Al Shabab 2-4 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (71%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Shabab face Al-Nassr.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Al-Nassr travel to Al-Shabab Club Stadium to take on Al Shabab. The game is scheduled for Thursday 7 May 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Shabab have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Al Shabab's home record at Al-Shabab Club Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Nassr — All Games: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Al-Nassr away from home this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Nassr are 1.40 PPG ahead (2.70 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
Al-Nassr have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 9 encounters against Al Shabab's 1 victories.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Jan 2026, ended 2–3 with Al-Nassr winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Nassr have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Al Shabab trading profile (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Al-Nassr trading profile (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 93% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Shabab 62% and Al-Nassr 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 55% | Al-Nassr 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.19 xG and Al-Nassr 2.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.013 / defence 1.398 | Al-Nassr attack 1.445 / defence 0.778. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.413. Al-Nassr's defence strength of 0.778 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.445 — the away xG of 2.85 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 64 Al Shabab games / 65 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 13% | Draw 16% | Al-Nassr 71%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 7.69 | Draw 6.25 | Al-Nassr 1.41. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (71%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 4.05. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.05 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.19 / 2.85) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 77% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 70% | Al-Nassr 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Al-Shabab Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 7 May 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 13% | Draw 16% | Al-Nassr 71% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 66% | xG Al Shabab 1.19 / Al-Nassr 2.85 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.013 / def 1.398 | Al-Nassr attack 1.445 / def 0.778 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.413 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
2.85
Al-Nassr xG
66%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 7 May 2026 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr?
Al Shabab 2 - 4 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 13% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 71% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Al Shabab and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Nassr?
Record (9 meetings): Al Shabab 1W | Draws 2 | Al-Nassr 6W.
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Nassr in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Al-Nassr (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Shabab's attack rating (1.01) and Al-Nassr's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Al Shabab's defence, projects 2.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.5%. Close behind: 1-3 (8.1%), 0-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
13%
7.82
16%
6.25
71%
1.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
8.1%
Away win
0 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
4.05
2.85
Al-Nassr xG
7.82
13%
Home win
6.25
16%
Draw
1.40
71%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
6%
17.36
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
1%
135.81
22%
4.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 5.0 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 2.8 |
| 1 | 2.1 | 5.9 | 8.5 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 3.3 |
| 2 | 1.2 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 2.0 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Al Shabab and 2.85 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 4.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Shabab come into this having played 64 games, going 25W 17D 22L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-L.
On the other side, Al-Nassr sit at 2.27 PPG from 64 outings (46W 7D 11L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.83 PPG clear of Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al Shabab's home form reads 15W 6D 11L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Nassr have taken 2.16 points per game from 32 outings (22W 3D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Shabab are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.48 scored and 0.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Shabab have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Nassr in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Current Season
Al-Nassr
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 25W 17D 22L in their last 64 games (1.44 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 46W 7D 11L in their last 64 (2.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 1.59 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.16 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Nassr have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2023, when Al-Nassr won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Shabab's record when hosting Al-Nassr specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al Shabab
2
Draws
7
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Nassr?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 1, Al-Nassr have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2026, when Al Shabab 2-4 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 69%, Al-Nassr 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Al Shabab and 75% for Al-Nassr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al-Nassr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Al Shabab's games and 59% of Al-Nassr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Al Shabab's matches and 75% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Al Shabab and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Nassr cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Al Shabab.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al Shabab 2-4 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.19 xG and Al-Nassr 2.85 xG, a combined 4.05. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Al Shabab beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Nassr outscored their 2.85 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.01 / defence 1.40 against Al-Nassr attack 1.45 / defence 0.78, drawn from 64/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 13% | Draw 16% | Al-Nassr 71%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 71%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 55%, Al-Nassr 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.44. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Shabab (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.53 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.