Al Shabab 1-1 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Shabab vs Al-Ittihad FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium plays host to Al Shabab versus Al-Ittihad FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Monday 9 January 2023 at 17:15 UTC.
Current Form
Al Shabab's overall Pro League record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Al Shabab have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al-Ittihad FC (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.20 for Al Shabab, 2.10 for Al-Ittihad FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Shabab lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2022, ended 0–2 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al Shabab half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Al-Ittihad FC half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 49% versus Al-Ittihad FC 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 61% | Al-Ittihad FC 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.57 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.420 / defence 0.680 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.099 / defence 0.815. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.147. Al Shabab carry an above-average attack strength of 1.420 — their λ of 1.57 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al Shabab's defence rating of 0.680 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Al Shabab games / 41 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 54% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad FC 21%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Ittihad FC 4.76. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Shabab at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Shabab if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 10% | Al-Ittihad FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 9 Jan 2023, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 54% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad FC 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 46% | xG Al Shabab 1.57 / Al-Ittihad FC 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.420 / def 0.680 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.099 / def 0.815 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Al-Ittihad FC xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 17:15 on Monday 9 January 2023 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al Shabab 1 - 1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al Shabab vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 54% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Al Shabab and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (2 meetings): Al Shabab 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Ittihad FC 1W.
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al Shabab's attack at 1.42x the league average against Al-Ittihad FC's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad FC's attack (1.10x) against Al Shabab's defence (0.68x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
54%
1.85
25%
3.94
21%
4.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
2.42
0.86
Al-Ittihad FC xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
4.87
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
21%
4.79
Win to Nil
23%
4.36
4%
23.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 11.9 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.3 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Al Shabab and 0.86 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Shabab's recent record stands at 23W 11D 7L from 41 games, a 1.95 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC, meanwhile, have gone 27W 8D 6L across 41 games — 2.17 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.95 PPG for Al Shabab against 2.17 for Al-Ittihad FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al Shabab have managed 14W 5D 1L from 20 games — 2.35 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.95 PPG overall — Al Shabab are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al-Ittihad FC's away record stands at 12W 5D 3L across 20 trips, a 2.05 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Shabab are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 1.90 scored and 0.80 conceded. Al Shabab's scoring rate against Al-Ittihad FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Al-Ittihad FC in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 23W 11D 7L in their last 41 games (1.95 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 27W 8D 6L in their last 41 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al Shabab's home record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 2.35 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 2.05 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Shabab have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ittihad FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al Shabab
1
Draws
5
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 4, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Al Shabab 3-2 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 35%, Al-Ittihad FC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Al Shabab) and 55% (Al-Ittihad FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Shabab keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al-Ittihad FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Al Shabab's recent matches and 60% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Shabab vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Al Shabab's matches and 55% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Al Shabab and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Shabab and Al-Ittihad FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 9, as Al Shabab and Al-Ittihad FC drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.57 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 0.86 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.42 / defence 0.68 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.10 / defence 0.81, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 54% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad FC 21%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 61%, Al-Ittihad FC 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Shabab 1.95 PPG, Al-Ittihad FC 2.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.15 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.